Brighton
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Brighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris
The model makes it 79% Brighton, 14% draw, 7% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.27, 7.14 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Brighton 4.13, Kauno Žalgiris 0.65.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%, under 2.5: 15%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Brighton are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Arsenal.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 79% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris
Brighton
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
Kauno Žalgiris
- W1-0Beşiktaş27 August 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş20 August 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Zagreb11 August 2026
- L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026
What these results say
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | Premier League | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Kauno Žalgiris has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Premier League · UEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris
Brighton
- P. Groß3 goals3 assists
- C. Kostoulas2 goals1 assist
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Kauno Žalgiris
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Brighton carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.37 for Kauno Žalgiris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.13 goals for Brighton and 0.65 for Kauno Žalgiris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brighton rate 1.37 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kauno Žalgiris rate 0.66 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.13 expected goals for Brighton against 0.65 for Kauno Žalgiris. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.75 for Kauno Žalgiris.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Brighton
- vs Crystal Palace18 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at FK Jablonec22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%
- at Liverpool25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Manchester City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Kauno Žalgiris
- vs Brann22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 30%
- at FC Lugano5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%
- vs Riga26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 55%
- at Egnatia Rrogozhinë10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
- vs SC Freiburg17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.