Egnatia Rrogozhinë
vs
FC Midtjylland
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0–2 FC Midtjylland
The model makes it 20% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 26% draw, 54% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 5.00, 3.85 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.90, FC Midtjylland 2.20.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Odense.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- L1-2away to Lillestrom27 August 2026
- D0-0Lillestrom20 August 2026
- W5-1Shamrock Rovers13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers4 August 2026
- D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026
FC Midtjylland
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Egnatia Rrogozhinë has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Superliga
Leading scorers: Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
No leading scorers listed yet.
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim4 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Egnatia Rrogozhinë carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.86 for FC Midtjylland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 2.20 for FC Midtjylland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.53 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Midtjylland rate 0.99 and 0.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë against 2.20 for FC Midtjylland. Egnatia Rrogozhinë's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.98 for FC Midtjylland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- at Aarhus22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 17%
- at Universitatea Craiova5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 12%
- vs Lincoln Red Imps FC26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 43%
- vs Kauno Žalgiris10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
- at SC Braga17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 8%
FC Midtjylland
- at Viborg19 Oct · Superligawin 42%
- vs St. Truiden22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
- vs Lyngby25 Oct · Superligawin 58%
- at FC Nordsjaelland1 Nov · Superligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.