Atalanta
vs
Pafos
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Atalanta 2–0 Pafos
The model makes it 54% Atalanta, 27% draw, 19% Pafos — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 2.00, Pafos 0.74.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atalanta are 11th in Serie A on 6 points from 5 games; Pafos are 4th in 1. Division on 7 points from 4 games.
- Atalanta are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Juventus.
- Pafos have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to AEL.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atalanta vs Pafos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atalanta vs Pafos
Atalanta
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
Pafos
- L0-2AEL18 September 2026
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
- D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pafos kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Pafos had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Atalanta and Pafos in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atalanta | Serie A | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 4 | Pafos | 1. Division | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Serie A · 1. Division
The two sides
Atalanta carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.73 for Pafos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Atalanta and 0.74 for Pafos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.14 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pafos rate 0.79 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Atalanta against 0.74 for Pafos. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.02 for Pafos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atalanta at home · Pafos away
League matches only, this season — Atalanta in the Serie A, Pafos in the 1. Division. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Atalanta 5 in the Serie A, Pafos 4 in the 1. Division.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Atalanta have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Atalanta
- at AC Milan18 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at Ajax22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 30%
- vs Frosinone25 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- at Fiorentina29 Oct · Serie Awin 39%
Pafos
- vs Apoel Nicosia19 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- vs Riga22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
- at Nea Salamis26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- at Apollon Limassol31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.