Slovan Liberec
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Slovan Liberec 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Slovan Liberec, 26% draw, 22% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Slovan Liberec 2.12, Mlada Boleslav 0.95.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovan Liberec at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav
Line-ups
- 40T. KoubekG
- 17P. JulišD
- 29L. HůlkaD
- 14A. DrakpeD
- 27A. KayondoD
- 8L. MasopustM
- 60F. FayeM
- 24P. DulayM
- 19V. KušejM
- 15M. LexaM
- 9L. MašekF
- 94Venuste BaboulaF
- 18J. KoželuhD
- 3J. MikulaD
- 5P. HodoušD
- 47Jindrich MusilG
- 16A. BužekM
- 33L. PešlG
- 6A. BasiladzeF
- 12V. StránskýM
- 59J. FloderG
- 32F. MatoušekD
- 44O. KarafiátD
- 3M. KrálikD
- 11M. HybšD
- 76Jan ZikaM
- 13D. DonátM
- 21M. ŠubertM
- 28D. LanghamerM
- 20S. JohnM
- 23J. KlímaF
- 77D. PechM
- 49J. KoláříkM
- 38F. KolarD
- 18M. HavranM
- 14S. GrygarM
- 70J. BuryánF
- 26M. ZachovalD
- 41Jan JinochF
- 5J. HarušťákD
Form going into Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav
Slovan Liberec
- W2-1away to FK Jablonec6 September 2026
- W2-0Hradec Králové30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin22 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Praha16 August 2026
Mlada Boleslav
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | Mlada Boleslav | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav
- 12 September 2026Slovan Liberec 3–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 18 April 2026Slovan Liberec 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 20 July 2025Mlada Boleslav 3–3 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 16 February 2025Slovan Liberec 3–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 5 December 2024Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 29 June 2024Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Slovan LiberecFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav
Slovan Liberec
- P. Dulay3 goals1 assists
- L. Mašek3 goals
Mlada Boleslav
- M. Šubert5 goals1 assists
- S. John3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.12 goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.95 for Mlada Boleslav; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Vasil Kušej 20' (Slovan Liberec), Lukas Masek 55' (Slovan Liberec), Vojtech Stransky 66' (Slovan Liberec).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Slovan Liberec against 0.95 for Mlada Boleslav. Slovan Liberec's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.29 for Mlada Boleslav.