Nyiregyhaza
vs
Kisvarda FC
NB I prediction
The model makes it 40% Nyiregyhaza, 33% draw, 27% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.06, Kisvarda FC 0.84.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Nyiregyhaza
- L0-1away to Debreceni VSC9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Gyori ETO FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Ujpest24 July 2026
Kisvarda FC
- L2-4Ujpest8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Puskas Academy31 July 2026
- D1-1Budapest Honved25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nyiregyhaza | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Kisvarda FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Nyiregyhaza
No league goals recorded yet.
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nyiregyhaza carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.19 for Kisvarda FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Nyiregyhaza W-L-L; Kisvarda FC D-W-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Nyiregyhaza and 0.84 for Kisvarda FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nyiregyhaza rate 0.36 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kisvarda FC rate 0.39 and 1.56.
That points to 30% for over two and a half goals and 38% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (16%), 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kisvarda FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nyiregyhaza the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Nyiregyhaza against 0.84 for Kisvarda FC. Nyiregyhaza's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.56 for Kisvarda FC.