CSKA 1948
vs
Cherno More Varna
First League prediction
The model makes it 87% CSKA 1948, 9% draw, 4% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: CSKA 1948 3.43, Cherno More Varna 0.74.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CSKA 1948
- W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Spartak Varna17 July 2026
Cherno More Varna
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA 1948 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
CSKA 1948 carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.11 for Cherno More Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA 1948 D-W-W-W; Cherno More Varna D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.43 goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.74 for Cherno More Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA 1948 rate 0.89 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cherno More Varna rate 0.46 and 2.04.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 4-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.43 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 0.74 for Cherno More Varna. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.04 for Cherno More Varna.