14 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result

Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
Full time4 – 1

Final score: CSKA 1948 4-1 Cherno More Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 81% CSKA 1948, 13% draw, 6% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.23, 7.69 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA 1948 at 81%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA 194899%Draw1%Cherno More Varna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽M. Achi
34'
E. Tombak
•
35'
⚽Frederic
40'
42'
B. Beyhan
🔁P. Vitanovout: A. Iliev
46'
⚽A. Iliev
52'
59'
🔁G. Lazarovout: M. Barandas
⚽Frederic
63'
🔁G. Rusevout: E. Franco
71'
🔁B. Sobreroout: B. Tsonev
76'
76'
🔁B. Beyhanout: A. Todorov
76'
🔁N. Zlatevout: J. Padilla
76'
🔁D. Telesout: V. Panayotov
⚽E. Franco
82'
🔁M. Zemzemiout: F. Krebs
84'
🔁Fredericout: M. Boychev
84'
87'
🔁C. Sidneyout: P. Andreev

Line-ups

CSKA 1948 4-2-3-1
  • 31Aleks BozhevG
  • 2Diego MedinaD
  • 4Andre HoffmannD
  • 5Benaissa BenamarD
  • 22Ognjen GaševićD
  • 8Moataz ZemzemiM
  • 34Petar VitanovM
  • 67Frédéric MacielM
  • 30Jules MeyerM
  • 11Georgi RusevM
  • 20Brian SobreroM
Substitutes
  • 9Atanas IlievF
  • 77Elias FrancoM
  • 10Borislav TsonevM
  • 19Marto BoychevM
  • 23Florian KrebsM
  • 13Dimitar SheytanovG
  • 96Dragan GrivićD
  • 70Kostadin IlievD
  • 6Egor ParkhomenkoD
Coach: Yuriy Vasev
Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 81Kristian TomovG
  • 50Ertan TombakD
  • 3Zhivko AtanasovD
  • 5Luciano SquadroneD
  • 26João BandaroD
  • 29Berk BeyhanM
  • 24David TelesM
  • 39Nikolay ZlatevM
  • 11Mohamed AchiM
  • 10Celso SidneyF
  • 19Georgi LazarovF
Substitutes
  • 7Miguel BarandasF
  • 71Vasil PanayotovM
  • 14Aleksandar TodorovM
  • 9Jorge PadillaF
  • 18Petar AndreevM
  • 31Damyan HristovG
  • 37Ventsislav KerchevD
  • 13Emanuil NyagolovD
  • 93Georgi VentsislavovD
Coach: Ilian Iliev

Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna

CSKA 1948

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Panathinaikos11 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Panathinaikos5 August 2026
  • W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
  • D0-0Spartak Trnava28 July 2026

Cherno More Varna

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
  • L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026

What these results say

  • CSKA 1948 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948.
  • Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4CSKA 1948149233316+1729
9Cherno More Varna143471422-813

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna

  • 15 April 2026Cherno More Varna 0–4 CSKA 1948First League
  • 9 November 2025CSKA 1948 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 24 November 2024CSKA 1948 0–4 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 19 July 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA 1948First League
  • 15 March 2024Cherno More Varna 2–1 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Cherno More Varna

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

  • Frédéric Maciel30
  • Elias Franco20
  • A. Iliev10

Cherno More Varna

No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA 1948 beat Cherno More Varna 4–1. The model had made a win for CSKA 1948 its most likely outcome, at 81%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M. Achi 10' for Cherno More Varna, Frederic 40' for CSKA 1948, A. Iliev 52' for CSKA 1948, Frederic 63' for CSKA 1948, E. Franco 82' for CSKA 1948.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.