CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Moscow 3-0 Rodina Moskva.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% CSKA Moscow, 20% draw, 16% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
CSKA Moscow at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49V. ToropG
- 21M. AzziD
- 4João VictorD
- 90M. LukinD
- 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
- 3D. KrugovoyD
- 31M. KislyakM
- 10I. OblyakovM
- 19I. OleynikovM
- 7Matheus AlvesF
- 32L. GondouF
- 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
- 39M. BoriskoG
- 79M. ZeaD
- 61P. FilyushinD
- 62I. FirovF
- 17K. GlebovF
- 37HenriqueM
- 18D. KozlovM
- 11T. MusaevF
- 13S. VolkovG
- 2Igor SilvaD
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 6R. FishchenkoD
- 75M. NadéD
- 20D. MachadoD
- 9A. MaksimenkoM
- 10Y. ReynaM
- 11B. MansillaM
- 17S. BakaevM
- 99I. TimoshenkoF
- 1S. AydarovG
- 23K. UshatovM
- 80S. BessmertnyD
- 95K. CissokoF
- 3L. GoglichidzeD
- 55M. KrižanD
- 38L. MusaevM
- 7G. OnugkhaF
- 50Rodrigo BecãoD
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
CSKA Moscow
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Rubin16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 26 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
- 16 February 2024CSKA Moscow 4–0 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Rodina Moskva
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov71
- I. Oleynikov34
- K. Glebov31
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CSKA Moscow beat Rodina Moskva 3–0. The model had made a win for CSKA Moscow its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Danil Krugovoy 24' for CSKA Moscow, Ivan Oblyakov 35' for CSKA Moscow, Ivan Oblyakov 80' for CSKA Moscow. On expected goals it finished 2.26–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave CSKA Moscow a 55.9% chance to finish in the top four: 59.4% after a win, 48.3% after a draw, 44.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.4%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
For Rodina Moskva the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 78.6% going in: 68.7% after a win, 78.2% after a draw, 80.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.6%, 2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on CSKA Moscow v Rodina Moskva has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 64% / 20% / 16%: the biggest move is CSKA Moscow's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- CSKA Moscow win64%▲ +7
- Draw20%▼ −4
- Rodina Moskva win16%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.