CSKA Moscow
vs
Rodina Moskva
Premier League prediction
Our model says: CSKA Moscow 2–1 Rodina Moskva
The model makes it 57% CSKA Moscow, 24% draw, 19% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 2.55, Rodina Moskva 1.01.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 57% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
CSKA Moscow
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
- D1-1Rubin16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
- 16 February 2024CSKA Moscow 4–0 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Rodina Moskva
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- I. Oleynikov3 goals3 assists
- L. Gondou3 goals1 assists
Rodina Moskva
- A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CSKA Moscow carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.02 for Rodina Moskva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.01 for Rodina Moskva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Moscow rate 0.62 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodina Moskva rate 0.50 and 2.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Moscow a 11.6% chance of the title and Rodina Moskva 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for CSKA Moscow against 1.01 for Rodina Moskva. CSKA Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.67 for Rodina Moskva.