Akhmat vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Akhmat, 28% draw, 35% Baltika — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Akhmat at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Akhmat vs Baltika
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. UlyanovG
- 95A. AdamovD
- 4T. IbishevD
- 6K. SidibéD
- 5K. CakeD
- 8M. BogosavacD
- 17Egas CacinturaM
- 11Ismael Silva LimaM
- 18Júlio RomãoM
- 7L. SadulaevM
- 13M. KonatéF
- 81M. SidorovD
- 10K. ShchetininM
- 19S. PryakhinM
- 90O. NdongD
- 71R. MitsaevG
- 70A. GadzhievM
- 97A. KasadzhikovF
- 42Manuel KelianoM
- 76E. MaksutiF
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 22M. BeveevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 77E. ĆivićD
- 73M. PetrovM
- 26I. BelikovM
- 10I. PetrovM
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 9C. OfforF
- 42V. PospelovM
- 11I. PorokhovF
- 8A. MendelM
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 14S. KovačM
- 3I. KirschD
- 98German IvaD
- 69E. GolenkovF
Form going into Akhmat vs Baltika
Akhmat
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Akron17 September 2026
- W3-2Dinamo Makhachkala13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rubin7 September 2026
- D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
- W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026
Baltika
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
What these results say
- Akhmat conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Akhmat scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Akhmat.
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Akhmat | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Baltika | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Akhmat vs Baltika
- 23 April 2026Akhmat 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 18 February 2026Baltika 2–2 AkhmatFriendlies Clubs
- 2 November 2025Baltika 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 13 April 2024Akhmat Grozny 1–7 BaltikaPremier League
- 31 October 2023Baltika 4–1 Akhmat GroznyCup
Leading scorers: Akhmat and Baltika
Akhmat
GoalsAssists
- L. Sadulaev33
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Akhmat and Baltika drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Akhmat at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.19–0.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Akhmat a 11.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.6% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.1%.
For Baltika the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.9% going in: 15.2% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.9%, 1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.