Akhmat
vs
Baltika
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Akhmat 2–1 Baltika
The model makes it 36% Akhmat, 29% draw, 35% Baltika — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Akhmat 1.40, Baltika 1.36.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Akhmat and Baltika are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Akhmat vs Baltika
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Akhmat at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Akhmat vs Baltika
Akhmat
- L0-2away to Akron17 September 2026
- W3-2Dinamo Makhachkala13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rubin7 September 2026
- D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
- W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026
Baltika
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
What these results say
- Akhmat conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Akhmat scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Akhmat.
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Akhmat vs Baltika
- 23 April 2026Akhmat 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 18 February 2026Baltika 2–2 AkhmatFriendlies Clubs
- 2 November 2025Baltika 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 13 April 2024Akhmat Grozny 1–7 BaltikaPremier League
- 31 October 2023Baltika 4–1 Akhmat GroznyCup
- 23 September 2023Baltika 1–0 Akhmat GroznyPremier League
Leading scorers: Akhmat and Baltika
Akhmat
- Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
- G. Melkadze3 goals
- L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists
Baltika
- B. Gil4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Akhmat carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.33 for Baltika. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Akhmat and 1.36 for Baltika. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Akhmat rate 0.55 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baltika rate 0.58 and 1.65.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Baltika, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Akhmat a 0.1% chance of the title and Baltika 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Akhmat the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Akhmat against 1.36 for Baltika. Akhmat's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.65 for Baltika.