8 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result

Tallaght Stadium, Dublin
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Drogheda United.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Shamrock Rovers, 25% draw, 19% Drogheda United — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shamrock Rovers at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shamrock Rovers99%Draw1%Drogheda United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Graham Burkeassist: John McGovern
1'
⚽John McGovern
20'
Lee Grace
40'
⚽John McGovernassist: Tunmise Sobowale
42'
🔁Lee Graceout: Cory O'Sullivan
45'
45'
🔁Leo Burneyout: james bolger
🔁Dylan Wattsout: Najemedine Razi
60'
🔁John McGovernout: Jonathan Afolabi
60'
🔁Graham Burkeout: Aaron Greene
61'
62'
🔁ethan brien oout: Jago Godden
62'
🔁Warren Davisout: Mark Doyle
🔁Jack Byrneout: John O'Reilly-O'Sullivan
68'
71'
🔁Ryan Markeyout: Thomas Oluwa
Aaron Greene
86'
88'
⚽Brandon Kavanaghassist: Shane Farrell
Cory O'Sullivan
90+2'

Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United

61%Possession39%
10Shots9
6On target3
6Corners4

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1
  • 1E. McGintyG
  • 6D. ClearyD
  • 4PicoD
  • 5L. GraceD
  • 22T. SobowaleM
  • 8M. HealyM
  • 7D. WattsM
  • 11J. MulraneyM
  • 29J. ByrneM
  • 10G. BurkeM
  • 88J. McGovernF
Substitutes
  • 25L. SteacyG
  • 28N. RaziF
  • 27C. O'SullivanD
  • 26John O'SullivanM
  • 31M. NoonanF
  • 9A. GreeneF
  • 24W. FitzgeraldF
  • 19A. BrennanM
  • 18J. AfolabiF
Coach: S. Bradley
Drogheda United 3-5-2
  • 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
  • 4A. QuinnD
  • 22C. KeeleyD
  • 5Leo BurneyD
  • 2E. AgbajeM
  • 8Ethan O'BrienM
  • 10B. KavanaghM
  • 17S. FarrellM
  • 3C. KaneM
  • 25R. MarkeyF
  • 24W. DavisF
Substitutes
  • 18J. BolgerD
  • 29J. BrennanD
  • 31K. CruiseD
  • 14M. DoyleF
  • 6J. GoddenM
  • 36theo hennessyG
  • 32D. MareD
  • 33S. McGrathM
  • 11T. OluwaF
Coach: K. Doherty

Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United

Shamrock Rovers

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
  • L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
  • W2-1Bohemians4 September 2026
  • D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Derry City30 August 2026

Drogheda United

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Bohemians18 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Shelbourne14 September 2026
  • W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Shamrock Rovers3620885938+2168
9Drogheda United361010164457-1340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United

  • 31 July 2026Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 4 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 4–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 16 March 2026Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 12 September 2025Drogheda United 1–1 Shamrock RoversFAI Cup
  • 31 August 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division

Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United

Shamrock Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGovern107
  • G. Burke84

Drogheda United

GoalsAssists

  • M. Doyle111
  • B. Kavanagh65

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shamrock Rovers beat Drogheda United 3–1. The model had made a win for Shamrock Rovers its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Graham Burke 1' for Shamrock Rovers, John McGovern 20' for Shamrock Rovers, John McGovern 42' for Shamrock Rovers, Brandon Kavanagh 88' for Drogheda United.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shamrock Rovers a 60.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 69.8% after a win, 49.8% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.8%, 9.2 points higher than before the match.

For Drogheda United the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 88.3% going in: 73.2% after a win, 86.4% after a draw, 92.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.9%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda United has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 50% / 28% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Shamrock Rovers's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Shamrock Rovers win56%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Drogheda United win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.