Shamrock Rovers
vs
Drogheda United
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Drogheda United
The model makes it 50% Shamrock Rovers, 28% draw, 22% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.80, Drogheda United 0.81.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 50% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
- D3-3away to Derry City30 August 2026
- W3-2Dundalk7 August 2026
Drogheda United
- L1-2away to Bohemians18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Shelbourne14 September 2026
- W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
- L2-3Dundalk28 August 2026
- L0-2St Patrick's Athletic21 August 2026
What these results say
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Drogheda United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Drogheda United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
- 31 July 2026Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 4 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 4–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 16 March 2026Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 12 September 2025Drogheda United 1–1 Shamrock RoversFAI Cup
- 31 August 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 16 June 2025Drogheda United 1–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
- J. McGovern7 goals5 assists
- G. Burke7 goals2 assists
- M. Noonan6 goals
Drogheda United
- M. Doyle8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shamrock Rovers carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.09 for Drogheda United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.81 for Drogheda United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shamrock Rovers rate 0.60 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Drogheda United rate 0.45 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shamrock Rovers a 57.9% chance of the title and Drogheda United 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shamrock Rovers the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers against 0.81 for Drogheda United. Shamrock Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.07 for Drogheda United.