Aluminium Arak vs Malavan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Aluminium Arak 1-1 Malavan.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Aluminium Arak, 24% draw, 19% Malavan — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aluminium Arak at 57% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Aluminium Arak vs Malavan
Aluminium Arak
- D0-0Esteghlal FC6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Gol Gohar1 September 2026
- D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad28 August 2026
Malavan
- W2-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak7 September 2026
- L0-1Nassaji Mazandaran2 September 2026
- L0-3away to Persepolis FC29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aluminium Arak vs Malavan
- 26 December 2025Aluminium Arak 0–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 22 November 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 MalavanHazfi Cup
- 8 May 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 December 2024Malavan 1–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 June 2024Malavan 1–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 31 December 2023Aluminium Arak 1–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.