Cruzeiro
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 47% Cruzeiro, 22% draw, 31% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 2.10, Atletico Paranaense 1.67.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cruzeiro
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
- W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 39 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Cruzeiro
No league goals recorded yet.
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros14 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cruzeiro carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.9 for Atletico Paranaense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cruzeiro L-W-W-W-W; Atletico Paranaense W-W-D-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.67 for Atletico Paranaense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruzeiro rate 1.17 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Paranaense rate 1.04 and 0.95.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico Paranaense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cruzeiro a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 1.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Cruzeiro against 1.67 for Atletico Paranaense. Cruzeiro's attack/defence rating is 1.17/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.95 for Atletico Paranaense.