Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cruzeiro, 27% draw, 35% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 15Fabricio BrunoD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 1CassioG
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 2Kaua MoraesD
- 12William FurtadoD
- 5Ze LucasM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 97L. RodriguezF
- 20WesleyF
- 1MycaelG
- 25DantasD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8Joao CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 23SantosG
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 3LeoD
- 22C. TeranD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 53Dudu KogitzkiM
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
- W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
What these results say
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | +14 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Pereira95
- Kaio Jorge82
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.