Internacional vs Santos Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional 2-3 Santos.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Internacional, 29% draw, 36% Santos — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional vs Santos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 4F. TorresD
- 25G. MercadoD
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 16RonaldoM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 28VitinhoM
- 10Alan PatrickM
- 7J. CarboneroM
- 19A. SanabriaF
- 12AnthoniG
- 18JuninhoD
- 35B. AguirreD
- 3G. MaripanD
- 17N. EliassonM
- 27Paulinho PaulaM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 5R. VillagraM
- 51J. Gabriel Kempes GoncalvesM
- 77Gabriel BrazaoG
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 15Willian AraoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 48Gustavo HenriqueM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 32B. RollheiserM
- 17G. CaballeroM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 1DiogenesG
- 42Joao AlencarD
- 26Joao AnaniasD
- 81S. PierriM
- 6Arthur MeloM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 30MiguelitoM
- 5Joao SchmidtM
- 16ThacianoM
Form going into Internacional vs Santos
Internacional
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
- D1-1Remo17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026
- D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
Santos
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo29 July 2026
What these results say
- Internacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional had two goals or fewer.
- Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 32 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Internacional and Santos
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa143
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.