Internacional
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 57% Internacional, 20% draw, 23% Santos — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Internacional 2.35, Santos 1.47.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Internacional
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
- D1-1Remo17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026
- D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
Santos
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Botafogo16 July 2026
- W3-1Vitoria30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 25 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Internacional
No league goals recorded yet.
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa8 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Internacional carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.62 for Santos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Internacional L-D-D-D-D; Santos W-L-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Internacional and 1.47 for Santos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Internacional rate 0.85 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos rate 0.90 and 1.46.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Santos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Internacional the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Internacional against 1.47 for Santos. Internacional's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.46 for Santos.