Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 1-0 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Fluminense, 29% draw, 31% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama
Line-ups
- 1FabioG
- 23GugaD
- 4IgnacioD
- 29J. MillanD
- 6ReneD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 10PH GansoM
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 7HulkF
- 98Vitor EudesG
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 94OtavioM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 28Riquelme FelipeF
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 3Tche TcheM
- 5S. SosaM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 9F. ColidioF
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 11A. GomezF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 82Riquelme AvellarD
- 10J. RojasF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 28AdsonF
- 7DavidF
Form going into Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama
Fluminense
- D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
- W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026
- D1-1away to Botafogo9 August 2026
- D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
Vasco da Gama
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 51 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Vasco da Gama
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.