Remo
vs
Flamengo
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 41% Remo, 28% draw, 31% Flamengo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Remo 1.38, Flamengo 1.19.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Remo
- L1-2away to Fluminense22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional17 August 2026
- D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol29 July 2026
- W2-0Vitoria26 July 2026
Flamengo
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | +24 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Remo
No league goals recorded yet.
Flamengo
- Pedro14 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Remo carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.75 for Flamengo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Remo W-L-D-D-L; Flamengo D-D-W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Remo and 1.19 for Flamengo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Remo rate 0.71 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Flamengo rate 0.83 and 1.03.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Flamengo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Remo a 0% chance of the title and Flamengo 32.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Remo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Remo against 1.19 for Flamengo. Remo's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.03 for Flamengo.