Corinthians vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 1-2 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Corinthians, 31% draw, 27% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corinthians at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 51KaueG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 4Joao PedroD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 29AllanM
- 37Kaio CesarM
- 8R. GarroM
- 7Breno BidonM
- 10M. DepayF
- 40Felipe LongoG
- 26F. AngileriD
- 20P. MilansD
- 46HugoD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 77J. LingardM
- 23M. PereiraM
- 80Alex SantanaM
- 35Charles RigonM
- 98AndersonG
- 5HeitorD
- 21KauanD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 12FernandoD
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 27Camilo ReijersM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31Mauricio GarcezM
- 9TulioF
- 30Matheus AurelioG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 26EvertonD
- 6ManchaD
- 70Rubens RicoldiM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 80M. CarvalhoM
- 19David AntunesM
- 11Y. BolasieF
Form going into Corinthians vs Chapecoense
Corinthians
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
- W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
Chapecoense
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
- D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
What these results say
- Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 32 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.