Coritiba vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 1-2 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Coritiba, 30% draw, 30% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coritiba at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 44Joao Pedro ChermontD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 55JacyD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GomezM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 28FabinhoM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 3MaiconD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 14Gabriel Ibson
- 10JosueM
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 30KhensaneM
- 39GustavoM
- 50TissiM
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 27DenilsonM
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 80WallissonM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 90ThomazellaG
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 12Victor LuisD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 10Chico KimM
- 7ShaylonM
- 5JapaM
Form going into Coritiba vs Mirassol
Coritiba
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
- W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
- W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026
- L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
Mirassol
- L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
- L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
What these results say
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Coritiba.
- Mirassol did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Mirassol
- 18 March 2026Mirassol 0–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 6 November 2024Mirassol 4–1 CoritibaSerie B
- 20 July 2024Coritiba 0–1 MirassolSerie B
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Mirassol
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.