Cruz Azul
vs
Leon
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Cruz Azul 2–1 Leon
The model makes it 62% Cruz Azul, 20% draw, 18% Leon — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Cruz Azul 2.56, Leon 1.17.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Cruz Azul: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Cruz Azul's rating is built from 56 Liga MX matches and Leon's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 783 matches.
Key facts
- Cruz Azul are 5th on 20 points from 12 games; Leon are 7th on 18 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to FC Juarez.
- Leon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to Club America.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruz Azul 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended Leon 2–1 Cruz Azul.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cruz Azul vs Leon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruz Azul at 62% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Leon
Cruz Azul
- W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Pumas UNAM12 October 2026
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
Leon
- L3-5Club America18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla10 October 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 | Leon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cruz Azul
Chance to finish in the top eight · 79% today
Leon
Chance to finish in the top eight · 24% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Leon
- 11 January 2026Leon 2–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 27 July 2025Cruz Azul 4–1 LeonLiga MX
- 12 May 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 9 May 2025Leon 2–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 16 April 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 15 September 2024Leon 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Leon
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- N. Ibáñez42
- G. Fernández41
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cruz Azul carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.49 for Leon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.17 for Leon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruz Azul rate 0.99 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leon rate 0.72 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cruz Azul a 2.4% chance of the title and Leon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruz Azul the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Cruz Azul against 1.17 for Leon. Cruz Azul's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.49 for Leon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cruz Azul at home · Leon away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Cruz AzulLeon
Cruz Azul are 5th after 12 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Leon are 6th after 12 (between 4th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Cruz Azul 12, Leon 12.
Cruz Azul score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Leon have let in 7 there.
Leon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cruz Azul have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Cruz Azul
- at Tigres UANL7 Nov · Liga MXwin 32%
- at Guadalajara Chivas22 Nov · Liga MXwin 27%
Leon
- vs Guadalajara Chivas9 Nov · Liga MXwin 30%
- at Santos Laguna21 Nov · Liga MXwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.