Tigres UANL
vs
Leon
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Tigres UANL 1–0 Leon
The model makes it 51% Tigres UANL, 26% draw, 23% Leon — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tigres UANL 1.73, Leon 0.98.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Tigres UANL: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tigres UANL are 13th on 13 points from 11 games; Leon are 5th on 18 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Tigres UANL have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Toluca.
- Leon are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Puebla.
- Last 6 meetings: Tigres UANL 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Leon 1–2 Tigres UANL.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tigres UANL vs Leon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Leon
Tigres UANL
- W3-2Toluca10 October 2026
- W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
Leon
- D1-1away to Puebla10 October 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tigres UANL
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
Leon
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Leon
- 1 February 2026Leon 1–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 14 September 2025Tigres UANL 0–0 LeonLiga MX
- 23 February 2025Leon 1–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 28 September 2024Tigres UANL 2–2 LeonLiga MX
- 18 January 2024Leon 1–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 16 July 2023Tigres UANL 1–0 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Leon
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta64
Leon
GoalsAssists
- D. Arcila40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tigres UANL carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.52 for Leon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.98 for Leon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigres UANL rate 0.75 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leon rate 0.68 and 1.33.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tigres UANL a 0% chance of the title and Leon 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigres UANL the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Tigres UANL against 0.98 for Leon. Tigres UANL's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.33 for Leon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tigres UANL at home · Leon away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Tigres UANLLeon
Tigres UANL are 11th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 11th and 18th so far); Leon are 4th after 11 (between 4th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Tigres UANL 11, Leon 11.
Tigres UANL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Leon have let in 3 there.
Leon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Tigres UANL have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tigres UANL
- at Pumas UNAM25 Oct · Liga MXwin 30%
- at CF Pachuca31 Oct · Liga MXwin 28%
- vs Cruz Azul7 Nov · Liga MXwin 43%
- vs Club America22 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
Leon
- vs Toluca24 Oct · Liga MXwin 32%
- at Cruz Azul2 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
- vs Guadalajara Chivas9 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
- at Santos Laguna21 Nov · Liga MXwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.