Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Necaxa
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Necaxa
The model makes it 65% Guadalajara Chivas, 20% draw, 15% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 2.49, Necaxa 0.96.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Guadalajara Chivas are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 19 points from 11 games; Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Guadalajara Chivas are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Atlas.
- Necaxa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to CF Pachuca.
- Last 6 meetings: Guadalajara Chivas 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 65% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
- D1-1away to Atlas11 October 2026
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
Necaxa
- D3-3away to CF Pachuca11 October 2026
- L2-4Club America28 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
- L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Guadalajara Chivas
Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today
Necaxa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 69% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
- 23 April 2026Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 24 September 2025Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 18 January 2025Necaxa 3–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 23 October 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 21 February 2024Necaxa 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 14 July 2023Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 NecaxaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Guadalajara Chivas carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.44 for Necaxa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.49 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.96 for Necaxa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.89 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Necaxa rate 0.71 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guadalajara Chivas a 14.5% chance of the title and Necaxa 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 0.96 for Necaxa. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.62 for Necaxa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Guadalajara Chivas at home · Necaxa away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Guadalajara ChivasNecaxa
Guadalajara Chivas are 4th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Necaxa are 17th after 11 (between 1st and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Guadalajara Chivas 11, Necaxa 11.
Necaxa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Guadalajara Chivas have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Guadalajara Chivas
- at Monterrey25 Oct · Liga MXwin 39%
- vs Atlante FC1 Nov · Liga MXwin 60%
- at Leon9 Nov · Liga MXwin 41%
- vs Cruz Azul22 Nov · Liga MXwin 51%
Necaxa
- vs FC Juarez24 Oct · Liga MXwin 51%
- at Santos Laguna1 Nov · Liga MXwin 27%
- vs Club Tijuana7 Nov · Liga MXwin 36%
- at Club Queretaro23 Nov · Liga MXwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.