FC Juarez
vs
Atlante FC
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: FC Juarez 2–1 Atlante FC
The model makes it 37% FC Juarez, 27% draw, 36% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.52, Atlante FC 1.46.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Juarez and Atlante FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Juarez are bottom on 4 points from 11 games; Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- FC Juarez have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Club Tijuana.
- Atlante FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Club Queretaro.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended FC Juarez 2–0 Atlante FC.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Juarez vs Atlante FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Juarez at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Juarez vs Atlante FC
FC Juarez
- D1-1Club Tijuana10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
Atlante FC
- L0-2away to Club Queretaro10 October 2026
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlante FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Atlante FC
- 28 June 2026FC Juarez 2–0 Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs
- 3 October 2019FC Juarez 1–0 Atlante FCCopa MX
- 14 August 2019Atlante FC 0–2 FC JuarezCopa MX
- 7 April 2019Atlante FC 2–1 FC JuarezLiga de Expansión MX
- 4 November 2018FC Juarez 2–3 Atlante FCLiga de Expansión MX
- 4 March 2018FC Juarez 0–3 Atlante FCLiga de Expansión MX
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Atlante FC
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán60
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Juarez carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.49 for Atlante FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for FC Juarez and 1.46 for Atlante FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Juarez rate 0.64 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlante FC rate 0.66 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atlante FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Juarez the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Juarez against 1.46 for Atlante FC. FC Juarez's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.37 for Atlante FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Juarez at home · Atlante FC away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC JuarezAtlante FC
FC Juarez are 18th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 17th and 18th so far); Atlante FC are 15th after 11 (between 9th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: FC Juarez 11, Atlante FC 11.
Atlante FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); FC Juarez have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Juarez
- at Necaxa24 Oct · Liga MXwin 25%
- vs Club Queretaro31 Oct · Liga MXwin 27%
- at Atletico San Luis7 Nov · Liga MXwin 22%
- vs Atlas21 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
Atlante FC
- vs Atletico San Luis24 Oct · Liga MXwin 45%
- at Guadalajara Chivas1 Nov · Liga MXwin 17%
- vs Santos Laguna7 Nov · Liga MXwin 45%
- at Club Tijuana21 Nov · Liga MXwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.