3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers League Two prediction & result

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Crewe 3-1 Bristol Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Crewe, 30% draw, 33% Bristol Rovers — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Crewe at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Crewe99%Draw1%Bristol Rovers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jack Lankesterassist: Joel Tabiner
1'
Josh March
8'
8'
Thomas James
Joshua Stephenson
10'
⚽Jack Lankester (pen)
21'
30'
Ciaran Kelly
Owen lunt
38'
45'
🔁Richard Smallwoodout: Keenan Gough
45'
🔁Alfie Kilgourout: Philip Sanyaolu
45'
🔁Jack Sparkesout: Ben Purrington
45'
🔁Reiss-Alexander Russell-Dennyout: Shaqai Forde
🔁Joel Tabinerout: Jordan Gibson
50'
🔁Jack Lankesterout: Conor Thomas
62'
⚽Jordan Gibsonassist: Josh March
66'
74'
🔁Ellis Harrisonout: Joe Quigley
77'
Keenan Gough
Conor Thomas
79'
🔁Adrien thibautout: Charlie McNeill
81'
89'
Clinton Mola
90+2'
⚽Bobby Kamwaassist: Clinton Mola

Match stats — Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

49%Possession51%
9Shots15
4On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Crewe 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. BoothG
  • 2L. BillingtonD
  • 6L. OffordD
  • 12J. StephensonD
  • 4Kyle UreD
  • 19O. LuntM
  • 10J. WhiteM
  • 7J. LankesterM
  • 11J. TabinerM
  • 9J. MarchM
  • 29A. ThibautF
Substitutes
  • 14J. GibsonM
  • 13I. LawlorG
  • 23C. McNeillF
  • 32L. MooreM
  • 8C. ThomasM
  • 36Joel EwusiM
  • 30Stan DanceyD
Coach: Lee Bell
Bristol Rovers 3-4-1-2
  • 1Brad YoungG
  • 4K. BalmerD
  • 5A. KilgourD
  • 17C. KellyD
  • 2T. JamesM
  • 21R. SmallwoodM
  • 6C. MolaM
  • 3J. SparkesM
  • 8R. Russell-DennyM
  • 10B. KamwaF
  • 19E. HarrisonF
Substitutes
  • 9J. QuigleyF
  • 14B. PurringtonD
  • 7S. FordeF
  • 27P. SanyaoluM
  • 32Charlie BinnsG
  • 22Keenan GoughM
Coach: S. Evans

Form going into Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

Crewe

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026

Bristol Rovers

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Exeter City26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Crewe145721717022
17Bristol Rovers145181723-616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

  • 7 March 2026Bristol Rovers 2–1 CreweLeague Two
  • 19 December 2025Crewe 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • 12 December 2023Crewe 2–4 Bristol RoversFA Cup
  • 1 May 2021Bristol Rovers 0–1 CreweLeague One
  • 19 January 2021Crewe 3–2 Bristol RoversLeague One

Leading scorers: Crewe and Bristol Rovers

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Bristol Rovers

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Crewe beat Bristol Rovers 3–1. The model had made a win for Crewe its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jack Lankester 1' for Crewe, Jack Lankester (penalty) 21' for Crewe, Jordan Gibson 66' for Crewe, Bobby Kamwa 90+2' for Bristol Rovers.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.