3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham League Two prediction & result

The Wham Stadium, Accrington
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Accrington Stanley 2-0 Cheltenham.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Accrington Stanley, 27% draw, 37% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cheltenham at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Accrington Stanley99%Draw1%Cheltenham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
Charlie McCann
Tyler Walton
48'
55'
🔁Joseph Tomlinsonout: George Nurse
🔁Tyler Waltonout: Charlie Warren
62'
Josh Woods
74'
⚽Charlie Warrenassist: Connor O'Brien
78'
David Tutonda
80'
84'
🔁Jordan Shipleyout: George Miller
84'
🔁Ryan Broomout: Jake Bickerstaff
⚽Charlie Warren
87'
90+3'
Charlie McCann
90+5'
Andreas Weimann
90+6'
🔁Andreas Weimannout: K. Otchere

Match stats — Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham

44%Possession56%
22Shots6
6On target1
8Corners2

Line-ups

Accrington Stanley 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. MouldenG
  • 28S. ConneelyD
  • 22J. AndersonD
  • 17D. MatthewsD
  • 2D. LoveM
  • 38C. O'BrienM
  • 10Alex HendersonM
  • 14Stefan MolsM
  • 33D. TutondaM
  • 23T. WaltonF
  • 39J. WoodsF
Substitutes
  • 20C. BrownF
  • 27J. CatesbyF
  • 8C. GrantM
  • 21J. RogersonG
  • 25J. SmithD
  • 30C. WarrenF
  • 3Oliver SmithD
Coach: J. Doolan
Cheltenham 4-2-3-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 3J. TomkinsonD
  • 5R. CundyD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 4J. TomlinsonD
  • 26J. ShipleyM
  • 7B. StevensonM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 8C. McCannM
  • 14R. BroomM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 1J. DayG
  • 10G. MillerF
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 33F. WillcoxM
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 9K. OtchereF
Coach: S. Cotterill

Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham

Accrington Stanley

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026

Cheltenham

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Accrington Stanley144732317+619
5Cheltenham146352325-221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham

  • 31 January 2026Accrington Stanley 3–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 6 September 2025Cheltenham 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 28 January 2025Accrington Stanley 0–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 1 October 2024Cheltenham 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 11 February 2023Cheltenham 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague One

Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91
  • J. Evans44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Accrington Stanley beat Cheltenham 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cheltenham at 37% and given a win for Accrington Stanley 36%. The goals: Charlie Warren 78' for Accrington Stanley, Charlie Warren 87' for Accrington Stanley. Sent off: Charlie McCann (Cheltenham) 90+3'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.