Accrington Stanley
vs
Cheltenham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Accrington Stanley 1–2 Cheltenham
The model makes it 36% Accrington Stanley, 27% draw, 37% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 1.66, Cheltenham 1.67.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cheltenham at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham
Accrington Stanley
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
- W3-2Crawley Town5 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby1 September 2026
- L2-3away to Walsall29 August 2026
Cheltenham
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby5 September 2026
- W3-2York1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Barnet29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham
- 31 January 2026Accrington Stanley 3–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 6 September 2025Cheltenham 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 28 January 2025Accrington Stanley 0–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 1 October 2024Cheltenham 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 11 February 2023Cheltenham 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 17 September 2022Accrington Stanley 1–0 CheltenhamLeague One
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham
Accrington Stanley
- C. Caton5 goals
Cheltenham
- C. McCann6 goals
- J. Evans3 goals2 assists
- A. Weimann3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Accrington Stanley carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.14 for Cheltenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.67 for Cheltenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Accrington Stanley rate 0.46 in attack and 2.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cheltenham rate 0.58 and 2.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Accrington Stanley a 0.1% chance of the title and Cheltenham 5.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cheltenham the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Accrington Stanley against 1.67 for Cheltenham. Accrington Stanley's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.48 for Cheltenham.