Colchester
vs
Port Vale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Colchester 1–0 Port Vale
The model makes it 37% Colchester, 31% draw, 32% Port Vale — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colchester 1.23, Port Vale 1.06.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Colchester vs Port Vale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colchester at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Colchester vs Port Vale
Colchester
- D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
- D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bristol Rovers1 September 2026
- W1-0Rochdale29 August 2026
Port Vale
- L0-2away to Walsall19 September 2026
- W1-0Exeter City12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town1 September 2026
- D0-0Crewe29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Colchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Colchester vs Port Vale
- 11 March 2025Colchester 2–1 Port ValeLeague Two
- 1 October 2024Port Vale 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 5 March 2022Colchester 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
- 23 October 2021Port Vale 3–0 ColchesterLeague Two
- 20 March 2021Colchester 0–1 Port ValeLeague Two
- 12 December 2020Port Vale 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colchester carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.17 for Port Vale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Colchester and 1.06 for Port Vale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colchester rate 0.47 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Port Vale rate 0.46 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colchester a 0.2% chance of the title and Port Vale 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Colchester against 1.06 for Port Vale. Colchester's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.8 for Port Vale.