Wolves
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wolves 2–1 Cardiff
The model makes it 49% Wolves, 26% draw, 25% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wolves 1.78, Cardiff 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Wolves are 8th on 17 points from 10 games; Cardiff are 19th on 11 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Wolves have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Burnley.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Middlesbrough.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 March 2019, ended Wolves 2–0 Cardiff.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wolves vs Cardiff
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolves at 49% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wolves vs Cardiff
Wolves
- W2-1away to Burnley16 October 2026
- L1-3Bolton13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
Cardiff
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026
- W5-1Watford13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
What these results say
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wolves
Chance to finish in the top four · 40% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Wolves
Cardiff and Wolves have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Wolves won the last one 2–0 on 2 Mar 2019.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Wolves | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Mar 2019
Premier LeagueWolves 2–0 Cardiff - 30 Nov 2018
Premier LeagueCardiff 2–1 Wolves - 6 Apr 2018
ChampionshipCardiff 0–1 Wolves - 19 Aug 2017
ChampionshipWolves 1–2 Cardiff - 1 Apr 2017
ChampionshipWolves 3–1 Cardiff - 13 Dec 2016
ChampionshipCardiff 2–1 Wolves
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Wolves and Cardiff
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López52
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wolves carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.57 for Cardiff. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Wolves and 1.11 for Cardiff. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolves rate 0.79 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cardiff rate 0.84 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wolves a 9.3% chance of the title and Cardiff 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Wolves against 1.11 for Cardiff. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.49 for Cardiff.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wolves at home · Cardiff away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WolvesCardiff
Wolves are 6th after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Cardiff are 17th after 11 (between 11th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wolves 10, Cardiff 11.
Cardiff score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Wolves have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wolves
- at Bristol City4 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- at Wrexham7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Charlton21 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
Cardiff
- vs West Ham4 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Burnley7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- at Norwich21 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Preston24 Nov · Championshipwin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.