Kruger United
vs
Stellenbosch
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Kruger United 2–1 Stellenbosch
The model makes it 43% Kruger United, 28% draw, 29% Stellenbosch — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kruger United 1.74, Stellenbosch 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kruger United vs Stellenbosch
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Kruger United wins, grey are draws, red are Stellenbosch wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kruger United at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kruger United vs Stellenbosch
Kruger United
- W1-0away to TS Galaxy13 September 2026
- L0-4Orlando Pirates1 September 2026
- L0-2Durban City25 August 2026
- L1-2away to Milford FC15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Marumo Gallants11 August 2026
Stellenbosch
- D1-1Sekhukhune United11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Durban City1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Golden Arrows26 August 2026
- W3-1Marumo Gallants14 August 2026
- D3-3away to Polokwane City11 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kruger United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
| 10 | Stellenbosch | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kruger United and Stellenbosch
Kruger United
- K. Ndlovu2 goals
Stellenbosch
- Q. Plaatjies3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kruger United carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.28 for Stellenbosch. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Kruger United and 1.20 for Stellenbosch. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kruger United rate 0.60 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stellenbosch rate 0.57 and 1.78.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stellenbosch, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kruger United the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kruger United against 1.2 for Stellenbosch. Kruger United's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.78 for Stellenbosch.