Pisa vs Padova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Pisa 0-1 Padova.
Before kick-off the model made it 79% Pisa, 12% draw, 9% Padova — fair odds of 1.27, 8.33 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pisa at 79%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pisa vs Padova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98A. ConfenteG
- 72S. ZanonD
- 4A. CaraccioloD
- 5S. CanestrelliD
- 7M. LerisD
- 14F. LoyolaM
- 55G. LeoneM
- 21I. VuralM
- 23T. MarrasF
- 37A. PetagnaF
- 10M. TramoniF
- 1A. SemperG
- 33A. CalabresiD
- 19T. EstevesD
- 44D. DenoonD
- 13A. PrimassoD
- 27J. MbambiD
- 2R. BozhinovD
- 29O. CorreiaD
- 17E. RaoF
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27A. DellavalleD
- 32F. SgarbiD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 24L. CarissoniM
- 14M. PompettiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 8P. FusiM
- 98L. ZanimacchiaM
- 20M. BortolussiF
- 10G. CaprariF
- 1L. MouquetG
- 18E. SillettiD
- 34M. CocchiD
- 72C. FaedoD
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 7K. VarasM
- 74D. MarcoliniM
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 15K. LasagnaF
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pisa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Pisa and Padova
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello41
- M. Tramoni35
- T. Marras31
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Padova won 1–0 at Pisa. The model had leaned towards a win for Pisa at 79% and given a win for Padova 9%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 11 matches like this one. The goal: P. Fusi 63' for Padova. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.23.