23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Hellas Verona vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result

Verona
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Hellas Verona 1-2 Ascoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hellas Verona, 25% draw, 37% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hellas Verona at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hellas Verona0%Draw5%Ascoli95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Mulattieriassist: A. Le Borgne
21'
37'
•Giovanni Corradini
39'
Giovanni Corradini
Andrea Le Borgne
41'
53'
⚽A. Silipoassist: M. A. Chakir
56'
⚽S. D'Uffiziassist: S. Damiani
🔁D. Oyegokeout: F. Cham
61'
🔁A. Harrouiout: D. Livramento
61'
Fallou Cham
65'
66'
Simone D'Uffizi
71'
Abdoul Guiebre
🔁A. Le Borgneout: A. Bernede
71'
73'
🔁S. D'Uffiziout: D. Bolsius
74'
🔁S. Perciunout: G. Acampora
74'
🔁S. Damianiout: A. Oliveri
83'
🔁G. Corradiniout: M. Nicoletti
83'
🔁M. A. Chakirout: G. Gori
🔁M. Compagnonout: L. Bega
90'
🔁G. Kastanosout: S. Cerbone
90'

Match stats — Hellas Verona vs Ascoli

46%Possession54%
24Shots10
7On target3
5Corners4
3xG1.17

Goals against chances

Hellas Verona1 from 3.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Ascoli2 from 1.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 2D. OyegokeD
  • 27P. DawidowiczD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 6D. BradaricD
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 11M. CompagnonM
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 9A. SarrM
  • 19S. MulattieriF
Substitutes
  • 34S. PerilliG
  • 22G. TonioloG
  • 28T. SlotsagerD
  • 48S. KoracD
  • 37N. CalabreseD
  • 24A. BernedeM
  • 23N. LellaM
  • 18L. BegaM
  • 70F. ChamD
Coach: Marco Baroni
Ascoli 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 62T. MilaneseD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 19A. GuiebreD
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 11S. PerciunM
  • 15S. D'UffiziM
  • 9M. A. ChakirF
Substitutes
  • 45G. M. CrespiG
  • 12R. DenteG
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 16A. RussoM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 14A. OliveriM
Coach: Francesco Tomei

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Hellas Verona114431913+616
3Ascoli11551177+1020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Ascoli

  • 12 August 2023Hellas Verona 3–1 AscoliCoppa Italia
  • 16 March 2019Hellas Verona 1–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 30 October 2018Ascoli 1–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B
  • 13 March 2017Hellas Verona 0–0 AscoliSerie B
  • 15 October 2016Ascoli 1–4 Hellas VeronaSerie B

Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Ascoli

Hellas Verona

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mosquera70

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ascoli won 2–1 at Hellas Verona. The model had leaned towards a win for Hellas Verona at 38% and given a win for Ascoli 37%. The goals: S. Mulattieri 21' for Hellas Verona, A. Silipo 53' for Ascoli, S. D'Uffizi 56' for Ascoli. On expected goals it finished 3.00–1.17.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.