Cesena vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cesena 1-1 Sampdoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cesena, 27% draw, 34% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cesena at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cesena vs Sampdoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SianoG
- 15A. CiofiD
- 6M. IlicD
- 4J. GelliD
- 3A. DavidD
- 10R. PaganoM
- 14X. DruiventakM
- 25D. BisoliM
- 18M. GuidiM
- 80A. FioriM
- 9C. ShpendiF
- 90T. MazziG
- 39N. FontanaG
- 7G. FrabottaD
- 2M. NattaD
- 23V. MagniD
- 5L. SchironeM
- 8M. FrancesconiM
- 43F. BertacciniF
- 20M. CasadeiM
- 1P. VindahlG
- 29A. Di PardoD
- 3S. GartenmannD
- 2M. VitiD
- 7M. CicconiD
- 6L. HendersonM
- 94S. EspositoM
- 14A. BellemoM
- 20D. SinaniF
- 99G. TutinoF
- 23F. DepaoliF
- 31S. GhidottiG
- 12A. KrastevG
- 25A. FerrariD
- 4A. RiccioD
- 16Y. VerschaerenM
- 35L. RodellaM
- 11T. BegicF
- 21G. ForteF
- 17L. ParaticiF
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cesena | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cesena vs Sampdoria
- 25 April 2026Cesena 0–0 SampdoriaSerie B
- 13 September 2025Sampdoria 1–2 CesenaSerie B
- 17 January 2025Sampdoria 1–2 CesenaSerie B
- 20 October 2024Cesena 3–5 SampdoriaSerie B
- 18 April 2015Sampdoria 0–0 CesenaSerie A
- 23 November 2014Cesena 1–1 SampdoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Cesena and Sampdoria
Cesena
GoalsAssists
- C. Shpendi81
Sampdoria
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cesena and Sampdoria drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cesena at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: C. Shpendi 17' for Cesena, L. Henderson 83' for Sampdoria. Sent off: Antonio David (Cesena) 50'. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.99.