23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Palermo vs Juve Stabia Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Palermo, 17% draw, 16% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 1.49, 5.88 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palermo at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Palermo96%Draw4%Juve Stabia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Johnsenassist: J. Pohjanpalo
4'
Tommaso Cassandro
45+2'
Jacopo Segre
46'
Tommaso Augello
62'
🔁F. Ranocchiaout: N. Estevez
64'
🔁D. Vavassoriout: G. Strefezza
64'
67'
🔁G. Scuderiout: T. Douglas
67'
🔁T. Battistellaout: N. Karic
🔁T. Cassandroout: P. Peda
72'
75'
🔁D. Buglioout: F. Artioli
75'
🔁K. Piscopoout: S. Fernandes
🔁D. Johnsenout: E. Gyasi
85'
🔁J. Pohjanpaloout: J. Le Douaron
85'
85'
🔁N. Pataneout: R. Sandrucci
Emmanuel Gyasi
88'
90'
Romeo Sandrucci

Match stats — Palermo vs Juve Stabia

47%Possession53%
16Shots13
5On target4
6Corners6
1.21xG1.04

Goals against chances

Palermo1 from 1.21 xGabout what the chances were worth
Juve Stabia0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Palermo 4-2-3-1
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 9D. VavassoriM
  • 23HernaniM
  • 17D. JohnsenM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 63N. BalagussG
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 29P. PedaD
  • 93F. BarbaD
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 24N. EstevezM
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 7G. StrefezzaF
Coach: Filippo Inzaghi
Juve Stabia 4-3-3
  • 23P. BoerG
  • 2M. RicciardiD
  • 87D. BettellaD
  • 6M. BellichD
  • 73G. ScuderiD
  • 5T. BattistellaM
  • 8D. BuglioM
  • 10C. PierobonM
  • 7N. PataneF
  • 27L. CandelloneF
  • 11K. PiscopoF
Substitutes
  • 1A. VukovicG
  • 25T. DouglasD
  • 96T. MaggioniD
  • 19N. PietrangeliD
  • 4M. BaldiD
  • 37F. MaistroM
  • 80F. ArtioliM
  • 18D. PerinM
  • 17N. KaricM
Coach: Pietro De Giorgio

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Palermo118302513+1227
13Juve Stabia114431211+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palermo vs Juve Stabia

  • 17 March 2026Palermo 2–2 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 8 November 2025Juve Stabia 1–0 PalermoSerie B
  • 17 May 2025Juve Stabia 1–0 PalermoSerie B
  • 19 January 2025Palermo 1–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 14 September 2024Juve Stabia 1–3 PalermoSerie B
  • 12 February 2022Palermo 3–1 Juve StabiaSerie C - Girone C

Leading scorers: Palermo and Juve Stabia

Palermo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Johnsen75
  • D. Vavassori61

Juve Stabia

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Di Nardo70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palermo beat Juve Stabia 1–0. The model had made a win for Palermo its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: D. Johnsen 4' for Palermo. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.04.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.