Coritiba vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 15% Coritiba, 23% draw, 62% Palmeiras — fair odds of 6.67, 4.35 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 62% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19Sebastian GomezM
- 7Joaquín LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 11Lucas RonierF
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 17Brian OcampoF
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 3MaiconD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15Gustavo GómezD
- 2Alexander BarbozaD
- 12KhellvenM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 22Joaquín PiquerezM
- 11Jhon AriasF
- 18MauricioF
- 19Ramón SosaF
- 32Emiliano MartínezM
- 37Riquelme FillipiF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 39HeittorF
- 21KaiqueG
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 56Arthur GabrielD
- 43Luis BenedettiD
- 3Bruno FuchsD
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Palmeiras
- 22 October 2023Coritiba 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 4 June 2023Palmeiras 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 6 October 2022Palmeiras 4–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 12 June 2022Coritiba 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 17 February 2021Coritiba 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Palmeiras
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López96
- Maurício91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palmeiras won 3–1 at Coritiba. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mauricio 9' for Palmeiras, Mauricio 19' for Palmeiras, Ramón Sosa 67' for Palmeiras, Paulo Roberto 68' for Coritiba. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.71.