22 July 2026, 22:30 UTC

Coritiba vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result

Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Coritiba, 23% draw, 62% Palmeiras — fair odds of 6.67, 4.35 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Palmeiras at 62% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Mauricioassist: Ramón Sosa
15'
Ramón Sosa
19'
⚽Mauricio
38'
Alexander Barboza
Thiago Santos
45'
🔁Sebastian Gomezout: Vini Paulista
46'
🔁Joaquín Lavegaout: Lucas Ronier
59'
🔁Renato Marquesout: Paulo Roberto
65'
🔁Bruno Meloout: Felipe Jonatan
65'
67'
⚽Ramón Sosaassist: Joaquín Piquerez
⚽Paulo Robertoassist: Josué
68'
🔁Thiago Santosout: João Pedro Chermont
77'
🔁Tingaout: Brian Ocampo
77'
79'
Khellven
79'
🔁Mauricioout: Emiliano Martínez
80'
🔁Jhon Ariasout: Riquelme Fillipi
90'
🔁Andreas Pereiraout: Lucas Evangelista
90'
🔁Ramón Sosaout: Heittor

Match stats — Coritiba vs Palmeiras

51%Possession49%
17Shots13
6On target6
8Corners4
0.66xG0.71

Goals against chances

Coritiba1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Palmeiras3 from 0.71 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coritiba 4-2-3-1
  • 22Pedro RangelG
  • 2TingaD
  • 23Tiago CóserD
  • 55Jacy MaranhãoD
  • 26Bruno MeloD
  • 21Thiago SantosM
  • 19Sebastian GomezM
  • 7Joaquín LavegaM
  • 10JosuéM
  • 77Breno LopesM
  • 78Renato MarquesF
Substitutes
  • 36Vini PaulistaF
  • 11Lucas RonierF
  • 6Felipe JonatanD
  • 18Paulo RobertoM
  • 44João Pedro ChermontD
  • 17Brian OcampoF
  • 1Pedro MoriscoG
  • 3MaiconD
  • 4Rodrigo MoledoD
Coach: Seabra Fernando
Palmeiras 3-4-1-2
  • 1Carlos MiguelG
  • 26MuriloD
  • 15Gustavo GómezD
  • 2Alexander BarbozaD
  • 12KhellvenM
  • 8Andreas PereiraM
  • 17Marlon FreitasM
  • 22Joaquín PiquerezM
  • 11Jhon AriasF
  • 18MauricioF
  • 19Ramón SosaF
Substitutes
  • 32Emiliano MartínezM
  • 37Riquelme FillipiF
  • 30Lucas EvangelistaM
  • 39HeittorF
  • 21KaiqueG
  • 14Marcelo LombaG
  • 56Arthur GabrielD
  • 43Luis BenedettiD
  • 3Bruno FuchsD
Coach: Ferreira Abel

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Coritiba2710893738-138
2Palmeiras2716834721+2656

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Palmeiras

  • 22 July 2026Coritiba 1–3 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 22 October 2023Coritiba 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 4 June 2023Palmeiras 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
  • 6 October 2022Palmeiras 4–0 CoritibaSerie A
  • 12 June 2022Coritiba 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 17 February 2021Coritiba 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A

Leading scorers: Coritiba and Palmeiras

Coritiba

  • Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
  • Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists

Palmeiras

  • J. López8 goals4 assists
  • Maurício7 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.