Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 3-3 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Atletico Paranaense, 29% draw, 32% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23SantosG
- 25DantasD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 29G. BenavidezM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8Joao CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 1MycaelG
- 3LeoD
- 22C. TeranD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 53Dudu KogitzkiM
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 18K. A. Calderon VargasF
- 1FabioG
- 23GugaD
- 4IgnacioD
- 29J. MillanD
- 6ReneD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 10PH GansoM
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 7HulkF
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 44JemmesD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 94OtavioM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 28Riquelme FelipeF
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
Fluminense
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
- 15 March 2026Fluminense 3–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 1 December 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 22 October 2024Fluminense 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 27 August 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 22 April 2023Fluminense 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 3 September 2022Atletico Paranaense 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assist
- Hulk7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.