30 August 2026, 23:00 UTC

St. Louis City vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result

CITYPARK, St. Louis
Full time3 – 3

Final score: St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% St. Louis City, 29% draw, 27% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St. Louis City at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Louis City97%Draw3%FC Dallas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Becher
3'
14'
Ramiro
18'
⚽S. Moore
⚽D. Edelman
43'
🔁A. Matanout: C. Holse
59'
59'
🔁H. Johanssonout: C. Cappis
59'
🔁S. Morenoout: R. Binyamin
⚽C. Holseassist: C. Wallem
64'
68'
🔁Ramiroout: L. Farrington
69'
🔁B. Kamungoout: N. Norris
🔁S. Jeongout: Z. Zengue
72'
81'
⚽S. Ibeaghaassist: J. Valiente
🔁J. Orozcoout: L. MacNaughton
88'
89'
Petar Musa
89'
🔁Kaickout: S. Sarver
Lukas MacNaughton
90+7'
90'
⚽L. Farringtonassist: P. Musa

Match stats — St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

53%Possession47%
10Shots12
5On target7
6Corners3
1.85xG0.98

Goals against chances

St. Louis City3 from 1.85 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Dallas3 from 0.98 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Louis City 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. BurkiG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 21D. PolvaraD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 23A. MatanF
  • 11S. BecherF
Substitutes
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 3T. Reid-BrownD
  • 4M. MbackeD
  • 28M. PerezM
  • 19C. HolseF
  • 59M. JoynerM
  • 91Z. ZengueM
Coach: Yoann Damet
FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 55KaickM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 21J. ValienteF
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 30M. CollodiG
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 24J. TorquatoD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 33C. HolstadM
  • 28S. SarverF
  • 23L. FarringtonF
Coach: Eric Quill

Form going into St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

St. Louis City

  • W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
  • W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
  • D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
  • W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026

FC Dallas

  • L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026

What these results say

  • St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Dallas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2St. Louis City2713864836+1247
3FC Dallas2713865042+847

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

  • 12 April 2026FC Dallas 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 7 September 2025St. Louis City 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2025FC Dallas 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 28 July 2024St. Louis City 2–1 FC DallasLeagues Cup
  • 16 June 2024FC Dallas 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 7 April 2024St. Louis City 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: St. Louis City and FC Dallas

St. Louis City

  • Rafael Navarro15 goals3 assists

FC Dallas

  • P. Musa18 goals5 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.