St. Louis City
vs
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 57% St. Louis City, 23% draw, 20% FC Dallas — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.89, FC Dallas 1.04.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St. Louis City
- W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
FC Dallas
- D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers23 July 2026
- W2-1away to Colorado Rapids24 May 2026
- W3-2away to San Jose Earthquakes17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 29 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
St. Louis City
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Dallas
- P. Musa13 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St. Louis City carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.47 for FC Dallas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): St. Louis City W-W-W-D-W; FC Dallas W-W-D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for St. Louis City and 1.04 for FC Dallas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Louis City rate 0.68 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Dallas rate 0.69 and 1.47.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Louis City a 0.3% chance of the title and FC Dallas 1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.04 for FC Dallas. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.47 for FC Dallas.