Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 2-1 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 32% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Chicago Fire at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. BradyG
- 2L. BarrosoD
- 5S. RogersD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 6A. SaletrosM
- 42D. D'AvillaM
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 17R. LodM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 44J. CohenG
- 16J. WatermanD
- 22M. PinedaD
- 38C. CuppsD
- 24J. DeanD
- 14V. RadojevicD
- 29D. PorebaM
- 19J. BambaF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 41J. PantemisG
- 5B. ByeD
- 20F. SurmanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 21D. CharaM
- 10D. Da CostaM
- 99K. VeldeM
- 17C. BassettM
- 11AntonyM
- 19K. KelsyF
- 25T. MuseG
- 15E. MillerD
- 18Z. McGrawD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 14V. JanssenF
- 88G. GuerraF
- 7A. LassiterF
- 22O. FernandezF
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
- L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
- L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026
Portland Timbers
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
- 14 February 2026Chicago Fire 3–4 Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
- 8 February 2025Portland Timbers 0–0 Chicago FireFriendlies Clubs
- 17 February 2024Portland Timbers 1–2 Chicago FireFriendlies Clubs
- 22 June 2023Portland Timbers 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 15 August 2019Portland Timbers 3–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 31 March 2018Chicago Fire 2–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Chicago Fire beat Portland Timbers 2–1. The model had made a win for Chicago Fire its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Lod 9' for Chicago Fire, D. D'Avilla 14' for Chicago Fire, F. Surman 85' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.06.