Clausura - 11 · 11 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
Referee: Jordi Espinoza
Full time0 – 1

Final score: UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% UTC Cajamarca, 25% draw, 50% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: UTC Cajamarca 1.23, Sporting Cristal 1.96.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

More Primera División (Peru) predictions

All Primera División (Peru) predictions →

Model insights: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

61%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 10%0-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting Cristal at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UTC Cajamarca0%Draw3%Sporting Cristal97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Luis Ibericoassist: Yoshimar Yotún
Gilmar Paredes
20'
31'
Santiago González
Arquímedes Figuera
51'
Manuel Ganoza
56'
🔁Jhosep Nunezout: Adolfo Muñoz
57'
🔁Joshua Canttout: Abdiel Arroyo
65'
69'
🔁Maxloren Castroout: Luis Abram
69'
🔁Luis Ibericoout: Gabriel
72'
Michael Hoyos
74'
🔁Yoshimar Yotúnout: Martín Távara
74'
🔁Michael Hoyosout: Hernán Barcos
77'
🔁Santiago Gonzálezout: Juan Manuel Cuesta
Gilmar Paredes
82'
🔁Marlon de Jesúsout: Santiago Gálvez
84'

Match stats — UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

47%Possession53%
17Shots10
4On target4
5Corners5
0.85xG0.56

Goals against chances

UTC Cajamarca0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Sporting Cristal1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. CamposG
  • 35G. ParedesD
  • 3M. GanozaD
  • 2B. DuarteD
  • 6F. CavagnaD
  • 15J. CerroM
  • 16A. FigueraM
  • 22D. CamachoM
  • 10M. LliuyaM
  • 7J. NunezM
  • 9M. de JesúsF
Substitutes
  • 11A. ArroyoF
  • 88L. ArceM
  • 29I. BarriosG
  • 21R. BettocchiG
  • 13D. CaroD
  • 17L. GarroD
  • 18S. GálvezF
  • 19A. MuñozF
Coach: C. Molins
Sporting Cristal 4-4-2
  • 1D. EnríquezG
  • 8L. SosaD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5R. LutigerD
  • 90Cris SilvaD
  • 7S. GonzálezM
  • 6A. ÁlvarezM
  • 19Y. YotúnM
  • 23M. CastroM
  • 22M. HoyosF
  • 16L. IbericoF
Substitutes
  • 29H. BarcosF
  • 33C. BautistaG
  • 21C. CabellosM
  • 77J. CuestaF
  • 18J. GonzálezD
  • 27GabrielM
  • 25G. TávaraM
  • 11I. ÁvilaF
  • 96L. AbramD
Coach: R. Mosquera

Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

UTC Cajamarca

  • L2-3away to Sport Huancayo20 September 2026
  • L1-2Juan Pablo II College11 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Alianza Atletico4 September 2026
  • L2-4Universitario29 August 2026

Sporting Cristal

  • W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to UCV Moquegua13 September 2026
  • W5-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Sport Boys30 August 2026

What these results say

  • UTC Cajamarca did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • UTC Cajamarca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Cristal won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Cristal scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Cristal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18UTC Cajamarca2848163251-1915
9Sporting Cristal28125114940+941

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

  • 11 October 2026UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
  • 19 April 2026Sporting Cristal 3–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 23 August 2025Sporting Cristal 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 6 April 2025UTC Cajamarca 4–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
  • 25 August 2024Sporting Cristal 4–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 31 March 2024UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División

Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal

UTC Cajamarca

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Sporting Cristal

GoalsAssists

  • H. Barcos93
  • L. Iberico70

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.23 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.96 for Sporting Cristal; the game produced 0 and 1.

A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Luis Iberico 12' (Sporting Cristal).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sporting Cristal the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca against 1.96 for Sporting Cristal. UTC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.54 for Sporting Cristal.