11 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Deportes Limache vs Palestino Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Limache
Referee: Francisco Gilabert
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Deportes Limache 2-2 Palestino.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Deportes Limache, 25% draw, 30% Palestino — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportes Limache at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportes Limache5%Draw91%Palestino4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

43'
Marcelo Eggel
⚽Gonzalo Sosa
45+3'
🔁Vicente Álvarezout: Leonardo Valencia
45'
53'
⚽Sebastian Gallegosassist: Gonzalo Tapia
⚽Gonzalo Sosaassist: Leonardo Valencia
55'
66'
🔁Marcelo Eggelout: Jonathan Benítez
73'
⚽Ronnie Fernándezassist: Jonathan Benítez
78'
🔁Gonzalo Tapiaout: Francisco Montes
78'
🔁Bryan Carrascoout: Jose Bizama
90+2'
🔁César Munderout: Ian Zohar Alegría Pindal
90+2'
🔁Sebastian Gallegosout: Nicolás Meza

Match stats — Deportes Limache vs Palestino

46%Possession54%
10Shots14
4On target3
3Corners4
1.62xG1.29

Goals against chances

Deportes Limache2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Palestino2 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportes Limache 4-2-3-1
  • 17C. GonzálezG
  • 33D. EscobarD
  • 2A. AguirreD
  • 24A. ParotD
  • 11Javier RojasD
  • 27T. GallettoM
  • 6C. FuentesM
  • 15V. ÁlvarezM
  • 16J. MenesesM
  • 19D. CastroM
  • 9G. SosaF
Substitutes
  • 5A. AlfonzoD
  • 7C. MoralesD
  • 21F. MoyaM
  • 10L. ValenciaM
  • 14H. MartínezM
  • 32V. CárcamoM
  • 1M. BórquezG
  • 26M. ArturiaF
  • 3B. MolinaD
Coach: V. Rivero
Palestino 4-2-3-1
  • 25S. PérezG
  • 7B. CarrascoD
  • 2V. EspinozaD
  • 3E. RocoD
  • 28D. ZúñigaD
  • 5D. GlabyM
  • 18S. GallegosM
  • 17M. EggelM
  • 20G. TapiaM
  • 27C. MunderM
  • 9R. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 21M. ArayaF
  • 11J. BenítezF
  • 16J. BizamaD
  • 4A. CezaD
  • 23J. LeónD
  • 8N. MezaM
  • 15F. MontesM
  • 30I. AlegriaF
  • 1S. SalasG
Coach: G. Farré

Form going into Deportes Limache vs Palestino

Deportes Limache

Primera División

  • L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026

Palestino

Primera División

  • L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Deportes Limache27124114840+840
7Palestino27115113938+138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportes Limache vs Palestino

  • 12 May 2026Palestino 3–2 Deportes LimacheCopa De La Liga
  • 12 April 2026Palestino 1–0 Deportes LimachePrimera División
  • 26 March 2026Deportes Limache 1–1 PalestinoCopa De La Liga
  • 3 November 2025Palestino 2–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
  • 18 May 2025Deportes Limache 0–1 PalestinoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Deportes Limache and Palestino

Deportes Limache

GoalsAssists

  • D. Castro147
  • G. Sosa80

Palestino

GoalsAssists

  • N. Da Silva82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportes Limache and Palestino drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportes Limache at 45% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gonzalo Sosa 45+3' for Deportes Limache, Sebastian Gallegos 53' for Palestino, Gonzalo Sosa 55' for Deportes Limache, Ronnie Fernández 73' for Palestino. On expected goals it finished 1.62–1.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes Limache a 14.9% chance to finish in the top four: 22.1% after a win, 8.9% after a draw, 4.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.9%, 6 points lower than before the match.

For Palestino the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 26.7% going in: 43.0% after a win, 26.1% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.1%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Deportes Limache v Palestino has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Deportes Limache's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Deportes Limache win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Palestino win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.