Deportes Limache
vs
Palestino
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportes Limache 2–1 Palestino
The model makes it 42% Deportes Limache, 27% draw, 31% Palestino — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportes Limache 1.83, Palestino 1.41.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportes Limache vs Palestino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Limache at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportes Limache vs Palestino
Deportes Limache
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
- W3-0Cobresal7 September 2026
- W2-0Nublense3 September 2026
- L0-3Everton de Vina29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Huachipato22 August 2026
Palestino
- L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Concepcion6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cobresal28 August 2026
- W1-0away to O'Higgins23 August 2026
- W5-1Huachipato18 August 2026
What these results say
- Palestino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palestino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 33 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Deportes Limache and Palestino
Deportes Limache
- D. Castro13 goals7 assists
Palestino
- N. Da Silva8 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportes Limache carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.47 for Palestino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Deportes Limache and 1.41 for Palestino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes Limache rate 0.74 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palestino rate 0.70 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palestino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Limache the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Deportes Limache against 1.41 for Palestino. Deportes Limache's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.49 for Palestino.