11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Sausalito, Vina del Mar
Referee: Reinerio Alvarado
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Everton de Vina 3-2 Deportes La Serena.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Everton de Vina, 24% draw, 21% Deportes La Serena — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Everton de Vina at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Everton de Vina97%Draw3%Deportes La Serena0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Felipe Chamorro
14'
Felipe Chamorro
⚽Julian Alfaroassist: Benjamín Berríos
28'
32'
Felipe Alejandro Gutiérrez Leiva
Nicolás Baeza
33'
37'
F. Dinamarca
47'
Lucas Alarcon
54'
🔁Felipe Chamorroout: Gonzalo Escalante
56'
⚽Matías Marínassist: G. Figueroa
63'
Bruno Gutierrez
66'
🔁Jeisson Vargasout: Diego Rubio
🔁Cristian Palaciosout: Josué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda
69'
🔁Emiliano Ramosout: Braian Aaron Martínez
69'
•Joaquin Moya
75'
⚽Braian Aaron Martínez (pen)
78'
🔁Nicolás Baezaout: Vicente Fernández
81'
82'
🔁G. Figueroaout: Alexander Oroz
82'
🔁Matías Marínout: Sebastián Díaz
Lucas Soto
83'
🔁Valentin Vidalout: Gustavo Charrupi
86'
🔁Lucas Sotoout: Óscar Opazo
86'
⚽Alan Medina (pen)
89'
90+1'
Franco ian rasso
Ignacio González
90+1'
90+9'
Bruno Gutierrez

Match stats — Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena

60%Possession40%
14Shots9
5On target6
8Corners1
2.27xG1.2

Goals against chances

Everton de Vina3 from 2.27 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportes La Serena2 from 1.20 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Everton de Vina 4-4-1-1
  • 1I. GonzálezG
  • 8L. SotoD
  • 37V. VidalD
  • 24D. OyarzúnD
  • 14N. BaezaD
  • 9J. AlfaroM
  • 21B. BerríosM
  • 7J. MoyaM
  • 11E. RamosM
  • 10A. MedinaM
  • 30C. PalaciosF
Substitutes
  • 6G. CharrupíF
  • 15V. FernándezD
  • 5R. GonzálezD
  • 25E. KirkmanG
  • 28A. LeonM
  • 4H. MagallanesD
  • 29B. MartínezF
  • 2Ó. OpazoD
  • 20J. OvalleM
Coach: W. Ribonetto
Deportes La Serena 3-4-3
  • 31J. TapiaG
  • 34I. RassoD
  • 5L. AlarcónD
  • 33R. DelgadoD
  • 21B. GutiérrezM
  • 14F. ChamorroM
  • 4F. Mac AllisterM
  • 26F. DinamarcaM
  • 23M. MarínF
  • 2G. FigueroaF
  • 10J. VargasF
Substitutes
  • 29M. PintoD
  • 11D. RubioF
  • 7A. OrozF
  • 1F. LanzillotaG
  • 9Á. HenríquezF
  • 16J. GutiérrezD
  • 8G. EscalanteM
  • 6S. DiazM
  • 28Y. SalazarM
Coach: Felipe Gutiérrez

Form going into Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena

Everton de Vina

Primera División

  • W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026

Deportes La Serena

Primera División

  • L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Everton de Vina2711794335+840
9Deportes La Serena2791084042-237

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena

  • 11 April 2026Deportes La Serena 1–0 Everton de VinaPrimera División
  • 28 August 2025Everton de Vina 3–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
  • 13 April 2025Deportes La Serena 2–1 Everton de VinaPrimera División
  • 27 August 2022Everton de Vina 4–0 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
  • 1 April 2022Deportes La Serena 1–3 Everton de VinaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Everton de Vina and Deportes La Serena

Everton de Vina

GoalsAssists

  • A. Medina123

Deportes La Serena

GoalsAssists

  • J. Vargas87
  • F. Chamorro73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Everton de Vina beat Deportes La Serena 3–2. The model had made a win for Everton de Vina its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Felipe Chamorro 10' for Deportes La Serena, Julian Alfaro 28' for Everton de Vina, Matías Marín 56' for Deportes La Serena, Braian Aaron Martínez (penalty) 78' for Everton de Vina, Alan Medina (penalty) 89' for Everton de Vina. Sent off: Bruno Gutierrez (Deportes La Serena) 90+9'. On expected goals it finished 2.27–1.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Everton de Vina a 44.6% chance to finish in the top four: 53.5% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 25.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.5%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

For Deportes La Serena the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.7% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 6.4%.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Everton de Vina v Deportes La Serena has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Everton de Vina's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Everton de Vina win55%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Deportes La Serena win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.