Everton de Vina
vs
Deportes La Serena
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Everton de Vina 2–1 Deportes La Serena
The model makes it 50% Everton de Vina, 26% draw, 24% Deportes La Serena — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Everton de Vina 2.08, Deportes La Serena 1.09.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Everton de Vina at 50% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena
Everton de Vina
- W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes Limache29 August 2026
- W3-1Universidad de Concepcion24 August 2026
- D1-1Audax Italiano16 August 2026
Deportes La Serena
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
- W2-1Nublense6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Union La Calera31 August 2026
- D3-3Cobresal23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion14 August 2026
What these results say
- Everton de Vina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton de Vina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportes La Serena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 25 | +12 | 36 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Everton de Vina and Deportes La Serena
Everton de Vina
- A. Medina11 goals3 assists
- N. Montiel6 goals1 assists
Deportes La Serena
- J. Vargas7 goals7 assists
- F. Chamorro6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Everton de Vina carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.35 for Deportes La Serena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Everton de Vina and 1.09 for Deportes La Serena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton de Vina rate 0.70 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes La Serena rate 0.65 and 1.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Everton de Vina the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Everton de Vina against 1.09 for Deportes La Serena. Everton de Vina's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.79 for Deportes La Serena.