Atletico San Luis
vs
Atlas
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atletico San Luis 2–1 Atlas
The model makes it 41% Atletico San Luis, 26% draw, 33% Atlas — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atletico San Luis 1.61, Atlas 1.38.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11 games; Atlas are 2nd on 21 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Atletico San Luis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santos Laguna.
- Atlas are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Necaxa.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico San Luis 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 July 2026, ended Atlas 0–1 Atletico San Luis.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico San Luis vs Atlas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico San Luis at 41% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Atlas
Atletico San Luis
- L1-2Santos Laguna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
Atlas
- W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atlas.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 2 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico San Luis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Atlas
Chance to finish in the top four · 42% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Atletico San Luis
Atlas and Atletico San Luis have met 6 times in the records we hold, Atletico San Luis has won 3 of them to Atlas's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Atletico San Luis won the last one 1–0 on 1 Jul 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Atletico San Luis | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Jul 2026
Friendlies ClubsAtlas 0–1 Atletico San Luis - 21 Feb 2026
Liga MXAtlas 3–2 Atletico San Luis - 18 Oct 2025
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 2–0 Atlas - 3 Mar 2025
Liga MXAtlas 3–1 Atletico San Luis - 3 Jan 2025
Friendlies ClubsAtlas 1–1 Atletico San Luis - 31 Aug 2024
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 2–1 Atlas
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 0.72 | 1.26 |
| Atletico San Luis | 0.74 | 1.50 |
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Atlas
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico San Luis carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.57 for Atlas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.38 for Atlas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico San Luis rate 0.74 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlas rate 0.72 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atlas, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico San Luis a 0% chance of the title and Atlas 3.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico San Luis the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Atletico San Luis against 1.38 for Atlas. Atletico San Luis's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.26 for Atlas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico San Luis at home · Atlas away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atletico San Luis 11, Atlas 12.
Atletico San Luis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Atlas have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Atletico San Luis
- vs FC Juarez7 Nov · Liga MXwin 55%
- at Puebla21 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
Atlas
- vs CF Pachuca7 Nov · Liga MXwin 39%
- at FC Juarez21 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.