FC Juarez
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: FC Juarez 0–1 Club Queretaro
The model makes it 27% FC Juarez, 27% draw, 46% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.11, Club Queretaro 1.61.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Club Queretaro are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- FC Juarez are bottom on 4 points from 11 games; Club Queretaro are 4th on 20 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- FC Juarez have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Club Tijuana.
- Club Queretaro are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Atlante FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Queretaro 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended Club Queretaro 1–1 FC Juarez.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 46% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
- D1-1Club Tijuana10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
Club Queretaro
- W2-0Atlante FC10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Juarez
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 98% today
Club Queretaro
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 35% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs FC Juarez
Club Queretaro and FC Juarez have met 6 times in the records we hold, Club Queretaro has won 4 of them to FC Juarez's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Club Queretaro on 8 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
| FC Juarez | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 Apr 2026
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–1 FC Juarez - 8 Nov 2025
Liga MXFC Juarez 1–2 Club Queretaro - 21 Apr 2025
Liga MXFC Juarez 0–2 Club Queretaro - 2 Nov 2024
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–2 FC Juarez - 16 Mar 2024
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–0 FC Juarez - 6 Nov 2023
Liga MXFC Juarez 0–3 Club Queretaro
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 0.72 | 0.99 |
| FC Juarez | 0.65 | 1.74 |
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán60
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- S. Homenchenko52
- A. Ávila40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Juarez carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.71 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for FC Juarez and 1.61 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Juarez rate 0.65 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.72 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Juarez a 0% chance of the title and Club Queretaro 35.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Juarez against 1.61 for Club Queretaro. FC Juarez's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/0.99 for Club Queretaro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Juarez at home · Club Queretaro away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: FC Juarez 11, Club Queretaro 10.
Club Queretaro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Juarez have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
FC Juarez
- at Atletico San Luis7 Nov · Liga MXwin 22%
- vs Atlas21 Nov · Liga MXwin 33%
Club Queretaro
- vs Puebla9 Nov · Liga MXwin 53%
- vs Monterrey14 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.