Pumas UNAM
vs
Cruz Azul
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Pumas UNAM 2–1 Cruz Azul
The model makes it 41% Pumas UNAM, 27% draw, 32% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 1.80, Cruz Azul 1.48.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pumas UNAM are 12th on 12 points from 10 games; Cruz Azul are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Pumas UNAM are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Atletico San Luis.
- Cruz Azul have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Toluca.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruz Azul 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2026, ended Pumas UNAM 1–2 Cruz Azul.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pumas UNAM at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
Cruz Azul
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
- 25 May 2026Pumas UNAM 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 22 May 2026Cruz Azul 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 15 March 2026Pumas UNAM 2–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Cruz Azul 2–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 11 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–0 Pumas UNAMFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2025Cruz Azul 3–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho5 goals
Cruz Azul
- N. Ibáñez4 goals1 assist
- G. Fernández4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pumas UNAM carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.69 for Cruz Azul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.48 for Cruz Azul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pumas UNAM rate 0.82 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruz Azul rate 0.91 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruz Azul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pumas UNAM a 0.1% chance of the title and Cruz Azul 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.48 for Cruz Azul. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.27 for Cruz Azul.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pumas UNAM at home · Cruz Azul away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Pumas UNAM 10, Cruz Azul 10.
Pumas UNAM score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cruz Azul have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pumas UNAM
- at Atlante FC17 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- at Santos Laguna22 Oct · Liga MXwin 37%
- vs Tigres UANL25 Oct · Liga MXwin 41%
- at Puebla31 Oct · Liga MXwin 37%
- vs Club America8 Nov · Liga MXwin 38%
Cruz Azul
- vs FC Juarez18 Oct · Liga MXwin 59%
- at CF Pachuca22 Oct · Liga MXwin 30%
- at Club Queretaro26 Oct · Liga MXwin 31%
- vs Leon2 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
- at Tigres UANL7 Nov · Liga MXwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.