Chongqing Tongliang Long
vs
SHANGHAI SIPG
Super League prediction & result
Final score: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 25% draw, 41% SHANGHAI SIPG — fair odds of 2.94, 4.00 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.40, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.55.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- L0-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Wuhan Three Towns25 July 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown18 July 2026
- D1-1away to Chengdu Better City11 July 2026
SHANGHAI SIPG
- L0-1Shandong Luneng1 August 2026
- W2-0Shanghai Shenhua25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Yunnan Yukun17 July 2026
- L1-2away to Qingdao Youth Island4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 29 |
| 12 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.55 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.11 for SHANGHAI SIPG.