26 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result

Ticha, Varna
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Cherno More Varna 0-3 Spartak Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Cherno More Varna, 26% draw, 38% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Varna at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
G. Trifonov
B. Beyhan
22'
33'
⚽A. Granchov
🔁B. Beyhanout: C. Sidney
46'
54'
A. Granchov
57'
🔁G. Trifonovout: A. Ivanov
69'
J. Tshitoku
🔁A. Donchevout: A. Todorov
72'
73'
🔁T. Silvaout: D. Valverde
73'
🔁D. Yordanovout: V. Oliveira
🔁V. Panayotovout: G. Lazarov
83'
🔁E. Tombakout: E. Nyagolov
83'
🔁M. Barandasout: P. Andreev
83'
88'
⚽G. Stojanovskiassist: Jota Lopes
89'
🔁G. Stojanovskiout: T. Chunchukov
89'
🔁Jota Lopesout: R. Sousa
90+4'
⚽R. Sousa

Line-ups

Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 81Kristian TomovG
  • 50Ertan TombakD
  • 3Zhivko AtanasovD
  • 5Luciano SquadroneD
  • 37Ventsislav KerchevD
  • 29Berk BeyhanM
  • 24David TelesM
  • 8Asen DonchevD
  • 71Vasil PanayotovM
  • 7Miguel BarandasF
  • 20Aleksandar KolevF
Substitutes
  • 70Antoan ManasievG
  • 13Emanuil NyagolovD
  • 93Georgi VentsislavovD
  • 26João BandaroD
  • 23Martin BanevM
  • 22Nikolay Petrov KostadinovM
  • 14Aleksandar TodorovM
  • 18Petar AndreevM
  • 39Nikolay ZlatevM
Coach: Ilian Iliev
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23Plamen IlievG
  • 20Deyan LozevD
  • 44Angel GranchovD
  • 45Joey TshitokuD
  • 4Boris IvanovD
  • 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
  • 8Damian YordanovM
  • 10Jota LopesM
  • 82Tomás SilvaM
  • 90Georg StojanovskiF
  • 99Georgi TrifonovF
Substitutes
  • 1Pedro VictorG
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 76David Valverde JuanD
  • 6Ricardo SousaM
  • 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
  • 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 77Anton IvanovF
Coach: Gjoko Hadzievski

Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna

Cherno More Varna

  • D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026

Spartak Varna

  • D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Cherno More Varna91261019-95
8Spartak Varna92431014-410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna

  • 26 July 2026Cherno More Varna 0–3 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 7 February 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 16 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 8 March 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 22 September 2024Spartak Varna 0–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 7 May 2023Cherno More Varna 3–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.