First League · Regular Season - 2 · 27 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Full time3 – 2

Final score: CSKA Sofia 3-2 Botev Plovdiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% CSKA Sofia, 23% draw, 24% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.92, Botev Plovdiv 1.25.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

61%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%2-0 8%

Match stats: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

Goals: Carlos Algarra López 38' for Botev Plovdiv, Joël Zwarts 41' for CSKA Sofia, Ioannis Pittas 90+1' for CSKA Sofia, Joël Zwarts 90' for CSKA Sofia, Asen Chandarov 90+4' for Botev Plovdiv.

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

  • 27 July 2026CSKA Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 22 November 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 19 July 2025Botev Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 26 May 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–4 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 9 May 2025CSKA Sofia 3–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 22 February 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.25 for Botev Plovdiv. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/2.6 for Botev Plovdiv.