Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Septemvri Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 45% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Septemvri Sofia at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 4Andrei ChindrişD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5Todor PavlovD
- 22Ivaylo IvanovM
- 12Efe AliM
- 7Sevi IdrizM
- 39Parvizdzhon UmarbaevM
- 94Cătălin ItuM
- 99Julien LamyM
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 44Milan PetrovicD
- 6Miha TrdanM
- 40Petar ZovkoG
- 3Radoslav PalazovD
- 24Denis KirashkiD
- 33Martin AtanasovM
- 16Alexander AlexandrovM
- 17Zapro DinevF
- 12Vladimir IvanovG
- 13Kubrat OnashchiD
- 4Martin HristovD
- 3Sebas WadeD
- 29Frantzety HerardF
- 5Yoan BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 8Bozhidar PenchevD
- 33Galin IvanovM
- 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
- 7Edney RibeiroF
- 28Stoyan StoichkovM
- 17Nicolas FontaineM
- 24Zahari AtanasovM
- 27André LiberalF
- 21Nikolay KrastevG
- 26Valentine OzornwaforD
- 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
- 23Borislav StoichkovD
- 30Viktor DobrevM
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Septemvri Sofia
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
- 13 March 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 3 October 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 28 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 16 February 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 26 August 2024Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
No player in First League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Septemvri Sofia 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Septemvri Sofia at 45% and given a win for Lokomotiv Plovdiv 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Lamy 5' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, A. Dzhamov 45+2' for Septemvri Sofia, K. Onasci (own goal) 88' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.