26 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Septemvri Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 45% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Septemvri Sofia at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Lamy
5'
7'
P. Ferreira
P. Umarbaev
15'
31'
🔁G. Ivanovout: S. Stoichkov
41'
S. Freitas
C. Itu
41'
45+2'
⚽A. Dzhamovassist: F. Herard
🔁J. Lamyout: C. Longville
65'
🔁Lucas Ryanout: M. Petrovic
71'
🔁P. Umarbaevout: M. Trdan
71'
73'
S. Wade
78'
🔁F. Herardout: N. Fontaine
85'
🔁A. Dzhamovout: A. Liberal
85'
🔁Y. Baurenskiout: Z. A. Atanasov
⚽K. Onasci (OG)
88'

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 4Andrei ChindrişD
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 5Todor PavlovD
  • 22Ivaylo IvanovM
  • 12Efe AliM
  • 7Sevi IdrizM
  • 39Parvizdzhon UmarbaevM
  • 94Cătălin ItuM
  • 99Julien LamyM
Substitutes
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
  • 44Milan PetrovicD
  • 6Miha TrdanM
  • 40Petar ZovkoG
  • 3Radoslav PalazovD
  • 24Denis KirashkiD
  • 33Martin AtanasovM
  • 16Alexander AlexandrovM
  • 17Zapro DinevF
Coach: Dusan Kosic
Septemvri Sofia 3-4-1-2
  • 12Vladimir IvanovG
  • 13Kubrat OnashchiD
  • 4Martin HristovD
  • 3Sebas WadeD
  • 29Frantzety HerardF
  • 5Yoan BaurenskiM
  • 6Pedro FerreiraM
  • 8Bozhidar PenchevD
  • 33Galin IvanovM
  • 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
  • 7Edney RibeiroF
Substitutes
  • 28Stoyan StoichkovM
  • 17Nicolas FontaineM
  • 24Zahari AtanasovM
  • 27André LiberalF
  • 21Nikolay KrastevG
  • 26Valentine OzornwaforD
  • 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
  • 23Borislav StoichkovD
  • 30Viktor DobrevM
Coach: Simao Freitas

Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026

Septemvri Sofia

  • D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv9207412-86
10Septemvri Sofia9225815-78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia

  • 26 July 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 13 March 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 3 October 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 28 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 16 February 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 26 August 2024Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.