26 July 2026, 12:45 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Raków Częstochowa, 20% draw, 9% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 1.41, 5.00 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raków Częstochowa at 71% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
O. Kobacki
🔁S. Svarnasout: J. Napieraj
24'
37'
⚽M. Flis
46'
🔁O. Kobackiout: J. Prsir
49'
⚽Z. Rogelj
🔁V. Kocherginout: M. Bulat
56'
🔁E. Otienoout: M. Ameyaw
56'
🔁M. Emreliout: A. Molnar
56'
F. Tudor
62'
63'
🔁S. Hamulicout: L. Sekulski
⚽P. Makuch (pen)
68'
70'
🔁J. Jimenezout: K. Pomorski
74'
J. Prsir
🔁T. Pienkoout: A. Basse
82'
85'
D. Pacheco
87'
🔁A. Radwanskiout: F. Hiszpanski

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock

57%Possession43%
17Shots4
5On target3
7Corners2
1.43xG0.86

Goals against chances

Raków Częstochowa1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wisla Plock2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 29Wiktor ZolneczkoG
  • 7Fran TudorD
  • 25Bogdan RacovițanD
  • 4Stratos SvarnasD
  • 20Jean Carlos SilvaM
  • 6Oskar RepkaM
  • 10Wladyslaw KocherhinM
  • 26Erick OtienoM
  • 9Patryk MakuchF
  • 11Mahir EmreliF
  • 21Tomasz PieńkoF
Substitutes
  • 2Jerzy NapierajD
  • 19Michael AmeyawM
  • 88Ádin MolnárM
  • 5Marko BulatM
  • 99Adam BasseF
  • 1Kacper TrelowskiG
  • 71Tarik KarićG
  • 39Isak BrusbergF
  • 15Oliwier KwiatkowskiM
Coach: Dawid Kroczek
Wisla Plock 3-4-2-1
  • 12Rafał LeszczyńskiG
  • 4Marcus Haglind SangreD
  • 35Marcin KamińskiD
  • 3Marcin FlisD
  • 21Žan RogeljM
  • 17Adam RadwańskiM
  • 8Dani PachecoM
  • 23Patryk KunM
  • 11JimeF
  • 7Olaf KobackiF
  • 10Said HamulićF
Substitutes
  • 18Jurica PrširM
  • 20Łukasz SekulskiF
  • 6Krystian PomorskiM
  • 16Fabian HiszpańskiM
  • 26Jakub BurekG
  • 5Marin KaramarkoD
  • 19Dion GallapeniD
  • 41Marcin WięckowskiD
  • 91Gleb KuchkoM
Coach: Adam Majewski

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock

Raków Częstochowa

  • W3-1Valletta FC23 July 2026

Wisla Plock

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Raków Częstochowa7106815-73
13Wisla Plock7223712-58

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock

  • 26 July 2026Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
  • 1 February 2026Wisla Plock 2–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 27 July 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
  • 21 May 2023Wisla Plock 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 5 November 2022Raków Częstochowa 7–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
  • 1 July 2022Wisla Plock 3–0 Raków CzęstochowaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock

Raków Częstochowa

  • P. Makuch4 goals
  • M. Emreli3 goals1 assists

Wisla Plock

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.