Necaxa vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 2-1 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Necaxa, 27% draw, 27% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Necaxa vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Luis JimenezG
- 33Raúl MartínezD
- 20Francisco MéndezD
- 3Agustín OliverosD
- 30Ricardo MonrealM
- 8Lorenzo FaravelliM
- 6Danny LeyvaM
- 88Carlos VargasM
- 11Juan TorresF
- 10Javier RuizF
- 9Julián CarranzaF
- 99Emilio RodriguezM
- 27Miguel PedrozaF
- 14Mauro ZaletaM
- 17Rogelio Cortéz PinedaM
- 90Juan ValenciaF
- 1Christopher AndradeG
- 5Kaiky NavesD
- 2Emilio MartinezD
- 21Matías EspíndolaM
- 22Luis CárdenasG
- 2Ricardo ChávezD
- 33Stefan MedinaD
- 13Carlos SalcedoD
- 3Gerardo ArteagaD
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 30Jorge RodríguezM
- 10Luca OrellanoM
- 17Jesús CoronaM
- 7Lucas OcamposM
- 9Diego RossiF
- 25Orbelín PinedaM
- 19Alonso AcevesD
- 99Hugo CuypersF
- 21Luis ReyesD
- 32Uroš ĐurđevićF
- 31César RamosG
- 4Victor GuzmánD
- 11Iker FimbresM
- 5Fidel AmbrízM
Form going into Necaxa vs Monterrey
Necaxa
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
Monterrey
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Monterrey
- 26 July 2026Necaxa 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 14 January 2026Necaxa 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 24 August 2025Monterrey 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 2 February 2025Monterrey 1–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 18 July 2024Necaxa 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 29 April 2024Necaxa 2–5 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Monterrey
Necaxa
- J. Carranza4 goals1 assists
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.