Necaxa vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 2-1 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Necaxa, 27% draw, 27% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Necaxa vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Luis JimenezG
- 33Raúl MartínezD
- 20Francisco MéndezD
- 3Agustín OliverosD
- 30Ricardo MonrealM
- 8Lorenzo FaravelliM
- 6Danny LeyvaM
- 88Carlos VargasM
- 11Juan TorresF
- 10Javier RuizF
- 9Julián CarranzaF
- 99Emilio RodriguezM
- 27Miguel PedrozaF
- 14Mauro ZaletaM
- 17Rogelio Cortéz PinedaM
- 90Juan ValenciaF
- 1Christopher AndradeG
- 5Kaiky NavesD
- 2Emilio MartinezD
- 21Matías EspíndolaM
- 22Luis CárdenasG
- 2Ricardo ChávezD
- 33Stefan MedinaD
- 13Carlos SalcedoD
- 3Gerardo ArteagaD
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 30Jorge RodríguezM
- 10Luca OrellanoM
- 17Jesús CoronaM
- 7Lucas OcamposM
- 9Diego RossiF
- 25Orbelín PinedaM
- 19Alonso AcevesD
- 99Hugo CuypersF
- 21Luis ReyesD
- 32Uroš ĐurđevićF
- 31César RamosG
- 4Victor GuzmánD
- 11Iker FimbresM
- 5Fidel AmbrízM
Form going into Necaxa vs Monterrey
Necaxa
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 10 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Monterrey
- 14 January 2026Necaxa 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 24 August 2025Monterrey 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 2 February 2025Monterrey 1–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 18 July 2024Necaxa 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 29 April 2024Necaxa 2–5 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Monterrey
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos63
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Necaxa beat Monterrey 2–1. The model had made a win for Necaxa its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Carranza 56' for Necaxa, L. Ocampos (penalty) 67' for Monterrey, J. Valencia 90+1' for Necaxa. Sent off: S. Medina (Monterrey) 20'. On expected goals it finished 2.92–1.03.