Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Pardubice 2-1 Bohemians 1905.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Pardubice, 30% draw, 33% Bohemians 1905 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pardubice at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 46Vladimir NeumanG
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 33Denis HalinskýD
- 21Mouhamed Tidjane TraoréD
- 15Emmanuel GodwinM
- 16Tomáš JelínekM
- 19Michal HlavatýM
- 25Ryan MahutaM
- 20Abdoull TankoF
- 17Václav DrchalF
- 99KahuanF
- 40Tobias BoledovicD
- 90Giannis-Fivos BotosM
- 8Samuel ŠimekM
- 35Victor SamuelF
- 12Jan TrédlD
- 1Jáchym ŠerákG
- 43Jason NoslinD
- 6Marek IchaD
- 77Robi SaarmaM
- 23Tomáš FrühwaldG
- 8David HeidenreichD
- 27David LischkaD
- 24Milan HavelD
- 32Petr MirvaldM
- 47Aleš ČermákM
- 42Vojtěch SmržM
- 37Dominik JavorčekM
- 16Roman KvetF
- 99Ladislav AlmásiF
- 10Jan MatoušekF
- 9Ladislav KrobotF
- 25Peter KareemD
- 70Šimon ČernýM
- 62Samuel ObinayaM
- 11Václav PilařM
- 12Michal ReichlG
- 22Jan VondraD
- 18Denis VálaD
- 15Mathews BandaD
Form going into Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905
Pardubice
Czech Liga
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
Bohemians 1905
Czech Liga
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pardubice | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905
- 8 February 2026Bohemians 1905 1–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 30 August 2025Pardubice 1–1 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 5 April 2025Pardubice 2–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 3 November 2024Bohemians 1905 0–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 25 May 2024Bohemians 1905 0–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Pardubice and Bohemians 1905
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Bohemians 1905
GoalsAssists
- A. Čermák51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 2–1. The model had made a win for Pardubice its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Dávid Krčík 2' for Pardubice, Roman Kvet 32' for Bohemians 1905, Václav Drchal 52' for Pardubice. Sent off: Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré (Pardubice) 89'. On expected goals it finished 0.90–0.92.
How the call on Pardubice v Bohemians 1905 has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Pardubice's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Pardubice win37%▼ −6
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Bohemians 1905 win33%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.