DC United
vs
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 0-0 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% DC United, 30% draw, 33% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: DC United 1.32, Atlanta United FC 1.19.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: DC United vs Atlanta United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into DC United vs Atlanta United FC
DC United
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026
- L0-3New England Revolution19 August 2026
- D1-1away to CF Montreal15 August 2026
Atlanta United FC
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
- L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: DC United vs Atlanta United FC
- 21 March 2026Atlanta United FC 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Atlanta United FC 1–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2025DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2024Atlanta United FC 3–3 DC UnitedLeagues Cup
- 19 June 2024DC United 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and Atlanta United FC
DC United
- T. Baribo14 goals
Atlanta United FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
DC United carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.51 for Atlanta United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for DC United and 1.19 for Atlanta United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
DC United rate 0.62 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlanta United FC rate 0.66 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives DC United the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for DC United against 1.19 for Atlanta United FC. DC United's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.31 for Atlanta United FC.