DC United vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 0-0 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% DC United, 27% draw, 30% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 2K. NonoM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 22N. OrdazM
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 9T. BariboF
- 26A. BonoG
- 13S. NealisD
- 27N. MarkovicD
- 77H. KijimaM
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 25J. HopkinsM
- 8J. StroudM
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 4E. MihajD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BaezD
- 48C. SanchezM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 35A. FortuneM
- 59A. MiranchukF
- 36B. EmboloF
- 10M. AlmironF
- 42J. HibbertG
- 27P. DiazD
- 47M. EdwardsD
- 28W. ReillyM
- 16A. GillM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 19Sergio SantosF
Form going into DC United vs Atlanta United FC
DC United
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026
- L0-3New England Revolution19 August 2026
- D1-1away to CF Montreal15 August 2026
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
- L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
What these results say
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs Atlanta United FC
- 21 March 2026Atlanta United FC 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Atlanta United FC 1–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2025DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2024Atlanta United FC 3–3 DC UnitedLeagues Cup
- 19 June 2024DC United 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and Atlanta United FC
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
DC United and Atlanta United FC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.21–1.42.
How the call on DC United v Atlanta United FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is DC United's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- DC United win43%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Atlanta United FC win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.