CF Pachuca
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 42% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 32% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CF Pachuca 1.55, Guadalajara Chivas 1.31.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CF Pachuca
- L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026
- L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón3 goals
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CF Pachuca carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.71 for Guadalajara Chivas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): CF Pachuca W-L-L; Guadalajara Chivas L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for CF Pachuca and 1.31 for Guadalajara Chivas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Pachuca rate 0.74 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.83 and 1.11.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Guadalajara Chivas, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Pachuca the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for CF Pachuca against 1.31 for Guadalajara Chivas. CF Pachuca's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.11 for Guadalajara Chivas.