CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. MorenoG
- 14C. SanchezD
- 13J. BerlangaD
- 2S. D. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 10E. MontielM
- 16C. RiveraM
- 26A. BautistaM
- 29KenedyF
- 23S. RondonF
- 11O. IdrissiF
- 31J. EulogioG
- 6M. IsaisD
- 206T. A. ContrerasM
- 28A. ArroyoM
- 187G. AlvarezF
- 32P. BudibD
- 7R. PizarroM
- 30S. RodriguezM
- 9A. AlcarazM
- 1R. RangelG
- 24M. GomezD
- 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
- 7L. RomoD
- 30S. SandovalM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 28F. GonzalezM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 25R. AlvaradoF
- 10E. AlvarezF
- 17R. MarinF
- 13O. WhalleyG
- 37R. LedezmaD
- 19K. CastanedaM
- 59S. IndaM
- 11B. GutierrezM
- 16L. ReyD
- 9A. SepulvedaF
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 18J. PerezM
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
CF Pachuca
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
- L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
- L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026
- L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Guadalajara Chivas had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 10 January 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 3 November 2025CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 23 February 2025Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 19 October 2024CF Pachuca 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 13 April 2024CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 24 September 2023Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón10 goals
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.