AZ Alkmaar
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 68% AZ Alkmaar, 19% draw, 13% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.30, GO Ahead Eagles 0.93.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AZ Alkmaar
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
- W4-1Willem II8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 23 April 2026GO Ahead Eagles 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 7 December 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 4 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 21 April 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesKNVB Beker
- 27 October 2024AZ Alkmaar 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 12 May 2024GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Leading scorers
AZ Alkmaar
- C. Stengs1 goals
GO Ahead Eagles
- M. Meulensteen1 goals1 assists
- E. Flataker1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AZ Alkmaar carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.51 for GO Ahead Eagles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): AZ Alkmaar W; GO Ahead Eagles W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for GO Ahead Eagles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AZ Alkmaar rate 0.85 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.72 and 1.43.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GO Ahead Eagles, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar against 0.93 for GO Ahead Eagles. AZ Alkmaar's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.43 for GO Ahead Eagles.