Atlas vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 1-3 Club Queretaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlas, 26% draw, 34% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Club Queretaro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 44J. SanchezD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 21R. SchlegelD
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 6E. ZaldivarM
- 26A. RochaM
- 11DukM
- 58A. GonzalezM
- 10L. EstevesM
- 9F. MonzonF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 4A. MoraD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 3J. SanchezD
- 15P. RamirezD
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 25G. AllisonG
- 24B. DuarteD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4C. GarciaM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 16E. GimenezM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 12Paulo VictorM
- 9A. AvilaF
- 1J. HernandezG
- 15C. Villanueva
- 29W. MadridM
- 18E. DuenasM
- 20A. AlcalaM
- 8B. ParraM
- 199S. GarciaM
- 26E. PerezF
- 7I. BenitoM
Form going into Atlas vs Club Queretaro
Atlas
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Club Queretaro
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlas won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Club Queretaro
- 21 March 2026Atlas 0–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 17 August 2025Club Queretaro 3–3 AtlasLiga MX
- 17 April 2025Club Queretaro 1–2 AtlasLiga MX
- 21 September 2024Atlas 0–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 31 March 2024Atlas 2–3 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 31 August 2023Club Queretaro 1–2 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Club Queretaro
Atlas
- Luís Esteves4 goals1 assist
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.