Atlas
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 46% Atlas, 25% draw, 29% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.69, Club Queretaro 1.30.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atlas
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Club Queretaro
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Atlas
No league goals recorded yet.
Club Queretaro
- A. Ávila3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.63 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlas W-W-L; Club Queretaro L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Atlas and 1.30 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.62 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.91 and 1.44.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Queretaro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Atlas against 1.3 for Club Queretaro. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.44 for Club Queretaro.